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Finished reading this book almost a month ago, but due to paucity of time almost forgot to write about this book.

This book is a look into the next 100 years by George Friedman (no relation to Thomas Friedman of the New York Times).  George Friedman is the chief executive of STRATFOR, a private global intelligence firm he founded in 1996. He has spent more than 20 years teaching political science and has commented extensively on security and defense issues.

Though its difficult to accurately predict what can happen next year, Friedman lets his thoughts into the next 100 years based on the situations and issues that have shaped the past 100-200 years.  Based on this he comes to the conclusion that in the next 100 years, the major powers of the world would be (hold your breath) USA, Japan, Poland and Turkey.

He goes on to describe that by the end of the current decade (2020), China would have disintegrated and Tibet liberated with active participation by India and China will either go back to its closed doors policy or become a non-entity.  Yes, China has to keep up its blistering growth or else there could be serious trouble among its population which has no other outlet to express its disenchantment against the communist government.  But to think that the communist government hasnt thought about it and doesnt have a plan B is difficult to imagine.

The author asserts that the United States power is so extraordinarily overwhelming that it will dominate the coming century, brushing aside Islamic terrorist threats now, overcoming a resurgent Russia in the 2010s and 20s and eventually gaining influence over space-based missile systems that Friedman names battle stars. Friedman is the founder of Stratfor, an independent geopolitical forecasting company, and his authoritative-sounding predictions are based on such factors as natural resources and population cycles. While these concrete measures lend his short-term forecasts credence, the later years of Friedmans 100-year cycle will provoke some serious eyebrow raising. The armed border clashes between Mexico and the United States in the 2080s seem relatively plausible, but the space war pitting Japan and Turkey against the United States and allies, prognosticated to begin precisely on Thanksgiving Day 2050, reads as fantastic (and terrifying) science fiction. Whether all of the visions in Friedmans crystal ball actually materialize, they certainly make for engrossing entertainment.

source: Amazon

There are a lot of issues on which i dont agree with the author of the book.  Other than a few instances, Friedman makes no mention of India in the whole book.  He says that India would be a regional power with no impact on the global affairs.  I cant understand how he manages to just discard a country that could have 1.5 billion people by 2050, the world’s top 5 standing army, one of the best airforce and naval power, not to mention an economy of at least $ 20 trillion by 2050 (conservative estimates).

I tried making a small comparison chart of the countries that are supposed to be significant players (according to Friedman) in the next 100 years versus India.  A cursory glance at the figures and its easy to see why the book is way off on its prediction.

* Data belongs to year 2009
** All figures are in US dollars
*** GDP & per capita is PPP
**** Data sourced from CIA website

But he goes on and on about Turkey and Poland being significant leaders in Europe who will militarily crush the rest of Europe.  There is hardly any mention of France or Britain.  Germany according to Friedman would be on the decline.  Agreed on that, but to dismiss the German power with regards to Turkey and Poland is simply too far fetched.

He also speaks a lot about Mexico which could be the top 10 economies by 2050, but no mention of India which could be the top 3 economy by 2050.  The author looks too enamoured by USA and believes that they will maintain status quo into the next 100 odd years.  Of course, no one believes that US will just lie down and die, but to imagine that the disastrous economic policies pursued by USA would have no impact into the future is a bit too far fetched to believe.  As for Japan, its negative population growth combined with its insignificant economic growth for the past 20 odd years have dented its abilities both on the economic as well as military front.  As a country that doesnt encourage any form of immigration, Japan will be in deep trouble as it has to cope with a rapidly graying population.  If it opens its doors to immigration, its will have to face a lot of social tensions.

The book is a good read, if you are into fantasies and would love to have a good laugh.  Surely not a book to be taken seriously.

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
Author – George Friedman
Pages – 272
Publisher – Doubleday

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For years China has been pursuing its policy of a string of pearls; which meant having naval stations around the Indian subcontinent as a means of encircling India.  The building of a port in the Sri Lankan town of Hambantota, Gwadar in Pakistan, courting the island states of Seychelles, Maldives, Mauritius and not to mention Myanmar.

Unwittingly of course, India had been resorting to its own plan of undoing this pearls by its Look East policy that it put in place a couple of decades ago.  Over these years, India has strengthend not only economic, but also military partnership with some key nations of South East & East Asia like Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand & Singapore.

Its no secret that China is one of the biggest trading partner of ASEAN as well as of Japan & South Korea.  But its also a fact that most of these countries are not comfortable with the flooding their domestic markets with Chinese goods.  Also China’s yuan manipulation keeps the prices of their goods cheaper and affects the local economies of countries like Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia etc.  And many of these countries are already protesting the same.

The increasing economic clout of China has also massaged its military ego and it now has a lot of territorial claims against countries like Japan, Vietnam and other South East Asian countries.

It is in this context that one can see how India’s Look East policy is reaping rich dividends.  Not only has it led to economic benefits, but also robust military exchanges between the countries and India.

In all these hoopla, what is not being missed is the increasing defence collaboration between the militaries of America and India.  During the cold war era, India was fully dependent on the Russians for arms supply.  with the collapse of the USSR, the spares dreid up and defence procurement dipped to a low for India. During the Kargil war, it was the Israelis who came to India’s aid with timely supplies of spares and the required ammunition.

Today Israel and the US are increasingly becoming the biggest arms suppliers to India. Over the last couple of years, India has purchased six C-130J Super Hercules aircraft for almost US$1 billion and eight Boeing P-8I planes for more than US$2 billion (2009) from the US.

Also US is in running to bag the massive $12 billion 126 advanced figher for which the testing is already underway.

Though it would do a world of good for India to have a coherent defence policy instead of buying piecemeal arms and ammunitions.  Not to mention try to have an indegenous arms production industry within the country.  Depending on the DRDO and its allied organisations is a suicidal step for the country.  Privatisation of the defence industry would go a long step in indigenisation of defence technology.   The Mahindras, L&T, Tatas are increasing their participation in defence technology and it would do a lot of good in future.

Some good reads on this topic

How India is undoing China’s string of pearls
Delhi’s obsequious Obamamania
India counters China’s “String of Pearls” through Naval Diplomacy

Above pictures courtesy: Tactical Life & Twenty22

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We can choose our friends, but not our neighbours.  This statement was famously made by our previous Prime Minister, AB Vajpayee. How true.  Given a chance we would like to pack Pakistan and dump them into the sea for being such a pest.  Why not?  Afterall, a country which has terrorism as its national policy against its neighbours, a country that drills hatred into its citizens brains 24×7, a country that doesnt mind soiling the plate that hold its food, Pakistan is nothing but a big pain in the butt for the world community now.

After the leak of more than 90,000 secret documents on the Wikileaks website, more and more sordid exposure of the Pakistani leadership are coming to light.  It was always known that the rogue intelligence agency of Pakistan, the ISI, was hand in glove with Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Lashkar-e-Toiba and many other terrorist organisations fomenting teror in India.

But what takes the cake is the ignorant America feeding the Paki army so that it can fund the terrorists which in turn stab the American and other NATO troops currently in Afghanistan in the back.  The same money that the Americans provided the Pakistani government is now being fed by the ISI and Pakistani Army back to the Al Qaeda backed terrorists who are in turn killing the American soldiers.

I wonder how the American citizens are tolerating their government feeding the same scums who are killing their soldiers. Any civilized government would have re-looked at the horrors of the backstabbing that Pakistan has been doing to their soldiers…but not the US government.  The game of strategic reach that the US likes to play so much has stretched its resources so badly that the US economy is on the verge of a collapse.  Still, it refuses to learn from its mistakes.

Inspite of the evidence put forth by the intelligence, that the biggest snake in the hole is nothing but the Pakistani Army/ISI, the Americans seem to have no qualms sharing the same bed with them.  Pakistan has mastered the art of holding a gun to its own head and threatening to kill itself.  Its time the Americans call their bluff.

If the Americans want to withdraw from Afghanistan in 3-4 years as they predict, its best for them to rein in the Pakistani Army/ISI and strengthen the Afghan govt’s hands in developing a strong defence against not only the local insurgents but also the Army/ISI.

As for India, the best thing for it to happen would be the breakup of Pakistan.  I have always believed that a strong and economically stable Pakistan is a bigger headache for India than one which is broken up into pieces.  I love Manmohan Singh and really appreciate the hard work he is putting in trying to find a peaceful solution with Pakistan.  But he doesnt realise that he is barking up the wrong tree and that Pakistan is like the dog whose tail will always be curled.  No matter what we cant straighten it.  Its not a civilized society and probably we need to wall off the borders between the two countries and cut all strategic, business and people to people ties.

According to Canada’s former ambassador to Afghanistan, Chris Alexander…

Gen. Kayani is saying he wants to call the shots in Kabul. To do so, he is prepared to support the principal outfit launching suicide attacks in Afghanistan’s cities. He is backing the Islamic Emirate’s effort to wreck an Afghan-led nation-building process.

The Pakistan army under Gen. Kayani is sponsoring a large-scale, covert guerrilla war through Afghan proxies – whose strongholds in Baluchistan and Waziristan are flourishing. Their mission in Afghanistan is to keep Pashtun nationalism down, India out and Mr. Karzai weak.

It has nothing to do with Islam, whose principles they trample; indeed, the flower of Afghanistan’s ulema (religious leaders) have been among their victims. Gen. Kayani and others will deny complicity. But as the WikiLeaks material demonstrates, their heavy-handed involvement is now obvious at all levels.

To understand the context of this fraught relationship, read a report called The Sun and the Sky: The Relationship of Pakistan’s ISI to Afghan Insurgents, by Matt Waldman, a former Oxfam policy adviser now at Harvard. It is a chilling tale. When the scale of this complicity is fully exposed, it will rank high on the list of modern scandals.

The USA seems to have no qualms cutting off all funding to Iran, North Korea and any other country that doesnt toe its line.  But when it comes to Pakistan, it strangely behaves like an Ostrich who buries its face in the sand.

Tunku Varadarajan hits the nail on the head when he says…

We are now at a crossroads with Pakistan, a point at which we need to pull out old words from the Bush playbook. It is time to state to them—to state, in particular, to Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kiyani, the Pakistan army’s chief of staff—that Pakistan is either with us, or against us. There can be no caveats, no exit clauses, no fine print, no weasely handwringing about Pakistan’s need to retain “strategic balance” in Afghanistan.

Some more articles on the leaked documents

On WikiLeaks, Pakistan and Afghanistan; the tip of an old iceberg

Above pictures courtesy: Pakistanisforpeace & omjiyadav

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The flip flop by the Obama administration needed to be reigned in quick. And what better way to show US its place than by asking it to choose between doling out alms to Pakistan in the form of F-16s in the guise of fighting terrorism or seeing its companies lose the lucrative $10 billion 126 aircraft deal floated by India.

It must be quite idiotic of the Obama administration to even believe that F-16 fighter planes that the Pak government is demanding will be used against some Taliban militants in the Af-Pak border.  Though i respect the fact that Pakistan is a sovereign nation and that its right to have military deals with any country shouldn’t be complained against as long as they don’t breach the international laws.  The same right for India to play the carrot and stick policy with the seller (USA) should be complained against either.

While Pakistan may have pitched hard with the US for early transfer of F-16 fighter aircraft and other sophisticated     military equipment, a concerned India is learnt to have raised the stakes by indicating to the US that such a     transfer may not go down well at a time when two US companies are bidding for the 126 multi-role combat aircraft tender floated by India.

This $10 billion-plus tender is considered one of the biggest international military contracts in the world now. At     present, six companies are in the fray: F-16 from Lockheed Martin (US), Boeing’s F-18 SH (US), Eurofighter from a     European consortium, the Rafale from France, the Swedish Gripen, and Russian Mig-35.

Most trials are over with the IAF planning to shortlist contenders on the basis of their performance in the next few     months.

Pakistan has been in negotiations with the US on obtaining 18 F-16s for the past few years. However, this has been     riddled by fears of it being used only to strengthen its military capabilities against India and not justifiably     needed in the war against terror.

Full article here

Above pictures courtesy:  Air Attack & Schema Root

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India on Sunday successfully tested the Agni 3 nuclear missile for the third time, indicating its readiness for induction into the strategic forces. The third successful test, which came after the initial setback in 2006 when the missile plunged into the Bay of Bengal, is part of the pre-induction trial of the missile that gives India for the first time the capability to strike deep into China.

The Agni 3 test, which took place from the Wheeler Island off the Orissa coast, has made the missile ready for induction, the Defence Ministry announced on Sunday. “The launch is part of the pre-induction trial. The Indian Army (the user) has carried out the total launch operations guided by the Defence Reseach and Development Organisation (DRDO) scientists. Now the Missile system will be fully inducted into the Armed Forces,” a statement by the Defence Ministry said.

While the formal induction will take at least two more years and a few more tests, the missile is strategically vital in India’s nuclear deterrence plans that rely on the second strike theory. India’s stated policy has been of no first use, which makes it vital to have long range missiles to strike back in the event of a nuclear attack.

Full article here

Pictures courtesy: Rediff & Mensa-Barbie

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