A load of crap from an idle brain

The next 7 years (2010 – 2017) of infrastructure investments in India would see an investment of almost a trillion dollars (approx 50 lakh crore rupees). Lots of money to be made for all the corrupt fellas as well as for the ones who want to earn legally.

And the infrastructure push just for the next one year is $140 billion (approx 7 lakh crores). Once in the lifetime of the growth of a country you can see such an explosive growth.  If you can identify the correct companies and make investments, it will give you the kind of returns which you would have never imagined.

India is roaring towards an infrastructure boom and plenty of jobs will be created like never before as capital expenditure in the next financial year is expected to surge up to a whopping Rs 700,000 crore or about 10 per cent of the expected gross domestic product of about Rs 70,00,000 crore. Companies in auto, power, railways, irrigation, airports and ports sectors are on a major expansion spree and Indian banks and financial institutions are pooling in massive resources.

But this may not be enough and some bankers expect companies to access other financing avenues such as capital market and overseas borrowing. Yet others feel that financial closure of many projects might have already been achieved and the implementation might not lead to fresh sanctions.

There is an overall economic recovery, thanks to improving operating profits and favourable equity market conditions this year. Almost every infrastructure sector is witnessing investments driven largely due to government support.

Both Crisil and the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) have nearly doubled their capital expenditure (capex) estimates for the next fiscal year to a whopping Rs 6,60,000 crore and Rs 7,00,000 crore, respectively.

“Every capacity addition activity leads to job creation, it cannot be a jobless growth. I cannot put a number on how many jobs would be created from the projected Rs 7,00,000 crore capex spending during 2010-11, but for every industrial job created, the multiplier effect in form of other jobs like contracts, etc, is 1:4,” says Ajit Ranade, chief economist of Aditya Birla group.

Some of these investments include

NTPC – 16,400 crore investment to expand coal based electricity production by 4100 MW
Mahindra & Mahindra – 2500 crores at Chakan near Pune to make 3 lakh vehicles annually
Tata Motors – 1500 crores at Sanand in Gujarat to make the Nano car
Renault Nissan – $990 million (approx 4500 crores) in Chennai to make 4 lakh cars annually
Maruti Suzuki – 2500 crores investment in Rohtak, Haryana
JSW Energy – 4200 crores
GVK Power – 3200 crores
Tata realty – 1370 for highways
IRB – 1824 crores for highways
Jindal – 47,000 crores for coal to liquid fuel plant & thermal power plant in Orissa
Tata -  21,000 crores project in Kalinganagar, Orissa

“There would be huge money coming as foreign direct investment in the next fiscal while the external commercial borrowing norms are expected to be relaxed further. Besides, India’s savings rate is 34-35 per cent of GDP, which translates into huge savings at the projected Rs 70,00,000 crore GDP for fiscal 2010-11. Hence I think, despite having high borrowing plans from the India Inc, capex spending by private and public sectors could be easily absorbed,” says Ranade of Aditya Birla.

Read the full articles here and here

Above picture courtesy: Abhijitkar

+++

Its also claimed to be the longest flyover in Asia.  Not sure of that title though. At least for the time being, its the longest in India.

Name : PV Narasimha Rao Expressway (PVNR Expressway)

Where:  Hyderabad, India

Total length:  11.63 kms

Connects : Mehdipatnam to Aramghar

Total cost:  Rs 600 crores

The ramps for the expressway are yet to be built.  It means, once you get on to the flyover, there is no getting off till the end.   Also access is restricted to four wheelers only.  Trucks and autos are not allowed.

The maximum speed permissible on the road is 60kmph.  Are you kidding me?

All pictures source: Telugupeople

+++

First a trip to smelly and dirty Chennai, then a trip to equally smelly and extremely dirty pilgrim town called Velankanni (with the famous shrine of Mary) and finally to an extremely clean, cold and windy Hyderabad.

Chennai was sweltering hot, i sweated buckets.  Coupled with that the scarcity of water and a city that is used by its citizens as a garbage dump.  You wonder where the municipal workers of the city are?  If at all they are doing the work.  Whether you are the middle of the city or at the outskirts, one thing that defines Chennai is the consistent crappy smell in the air.  The air stinks in Chennai and uniformly so.  Dont know why and how.  This is in addition to the dirt and filth all around.  Wonder which moron decided to name it a metro.

Velankanni was equally dirty.  For a piligrim town with such a potential for tourism, there are hardly any good lodge/hotels.  The only good ones are the dorms run by the church, but they too offer you rooms for the next day only.  And if you are the ones (like me) who just drop into the town with no reservations, hoping to stay at some hotel, be disappointed with the kinds of rooms you get there.  As for the restaurants, stay away if you dont want to come down with some extreme case of food poisoning or diarrhea.

If you have any plans of going to Velankanni, stay at Nagapattinam, a town near Velankanni.  Take a bus in the morning to Velankanni, see around and come back to Nagapattinam.  This was advised by my friends after i did my trip much to my exasperation.

Took a train from Chennai to Hyderabad.  Was travelling by the Indian Railways after more than 11 years and loved the experience.  Reached Hyderabad early morning around 6am on the 14th (our 1st wedding anniversary).   Was amazed at how clean the city of Hyderabad was at 6 in the morning.   Either the roads were swept clean or at some places the cleaners were hard at work.  Kudos to the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) and the people who work for them for keeping the city reasonably clean.

It was drizzling all through and there was a nice cool breeze.  Loved it. Since we were tired, we preferred to rest.  There was not much celebration for the anniversary as all plans were for wifey’s birthday which was 2 days later on the 16th.  Had a get together at home for friends and family for wifey’s birthday.

Later on in the week, went to the new mall in town, GVK-1.  Good place to hang out, but there was something lacking in the place.  I prefer Hyderabad Central or City Center.  Also the mall is pretty new and the shops are only coming up.  Maybe it will be good once it fills up.

Saw the movie New York.  Not bad i thought.  Better than the crap that Yash Raj is famous for churning out. Saw the movie at the new INOX multiplex at GVK-1.  The seating is good and so is the sound system.

Travelled back to Singapore via Chennai again.  From the superb airport of Hyderabad to a garbage can called Chennai Airport is a perfect example of what the private sector can do to our economy while at the same time, the Chennai airport run by the inefficient babus of Airports Authority of India have really screwed it up.

There were no seats at the international departure.  They simply disappeared.  For someone who’se flight is yet to start check-in, they simply have to stand there waiting for the counters to open.  Can you believe that?  What about the elderly and the people who need to rest?  Have the airport authorities ever thought about their comfort?

And the cafe’s selling stuff in Chennai airport are nothing but daylight robbery.  Tea is sold for Rs 30.  A samosa / aloo bonda costs Rs 60.  Whereas you get a good Cafe Coffee Day coffee at the Hyderabad airport for just Rs 15.

I can go on and on about the pathetic situation at Chennai airport, but its a waste of time.  Its a perfect example of why the airport needs to be handed over to a private player so that they can do a better job of the same.  Anyone with doubts can look at Hyderabad, Bangalore, Delhi and Bombay airports and compare them to the ones run by AAI.  There is simply no comparison.

Back at office and a mountain of work stares me in the face.  Time to get going.

Chennai picture courtesy: I’m seeing green ;  Hyderabad tank bund and NTR gardens picture courtesy: Hyderabad

+++

The new year has not been off to a great start, at least blogging wise for me.  For some strange reason, iam not even checking my blog, visiting any other blogs or even commenting on them. Contrary to the economic conditions worldwide, am swamped with work.  On my way back home, am so tired that i hardly can open a book and read.

The songs in my Creative Zen play in my head as i doze off.  Fortunately, i haven’t missed out on my bus stop.  Eitherway, the bus interchange is quite close to my home and even if i don’t wake up, the driver will kick me out once the bus reaches the interchange.

Before i could realise, the 4 day weekend passed by.  Did nothing constructive. Just lazed around at home and watched 6 movies.  Some of them i have updated at the Movies page.

I have almost stopped reading the newspapers thoroughly.  With layoffs to the emergence of Talibans in Mangalore, the Thuggerays in Bombay to the incessant coverage of Manmohan Singh’s health conditions, its getting routine and boring.  With so much of bad news around, i hardly need any more in the papers to feel more glum.  So, i have made it a point to no longer read any news in detail that sounds negative.

The only positive thing that happened is that South Africa beat the hell out of the Aussies both in the test and one-dayers.  Pricky Ricky Ponting’s face was well worth watching during the match.  Everything that he is laying his hands on is turning into cow dung.  Looks like Australia committed the same mistakes that West Indies did in the 90s after a superb 80s.  By not managing to get effective players to replace the likes of Waugh brothers, Taylor, Warne, McGrath, Slater, Hayden etc the Aus team is now in a serious rut.

Warner and Shaun Marsh are great prospects, but Aus doesnt have a bowling lineup that can bowl out an opposition twice in a test match.  In McGrath and Warne they had 2 of the most lethal and consistent bowlers.  Of course such players are born only once in a generation, but for sure there has been no good nurturing of the kids to replace the giants.

Compared to them, i believe the Indian team has done a better transition.  With Kumble and Ganguly gone and with Dravid almost out, India has lost a majority of the Fab 5 that it boasted of.  The one day team has no one from the Fab 5 except Sachin Tendulkar and unlike the past when we switched off the TV when Sachin got out, today hardly anyone blinks.

From the boring domination of the Aussies at the beginning of this decade to a much more rounded competition (South Africa, India and Australia), i believe we could be looking at much better matches ahead.

Also once Muralitharan and Jayasuriya hang their gloves, Sri Lanka would also be on their way down.

So, what have i been doing in the past 2 months ever since the markets crashed and the economic gloom all around? Invest in the stock markets of course.  Some of the best companies are available at dirt cheap prices or at the lowest ever prices in their lifetime.  I know of a lot of people who are staying away and waiting for the markets to stabilize (am not sure what that means), but am buying.

I have started buying small amounts in L&T even though am not really appreciative of the L&T management trying its luck in the Satyam muck.  I have also started buying into Tata Motors.  Also have averaged out my investments in Reliance Communications, Punj Lloyd, Suzlon & Praj Industries.

Disclaimer:  I would like to hereby declare that all the investments that i write in my posts are not to be taken as an advice.  Iam not responsible for any losses that you might make by following  what i have mentioned in this blog. Please approach a Certified Financial Advisor for more info or do your own research before investing.

+++

After all its not all what it seems it is.  Even though Ramalinga Raju tried to put up an innocent face in the resignation drama and has tried to take all the blame himeslf, it doesnt still seem to add up.  Its always been suspected that Raju was never interested in the IT field and Satyam was just a facade for him to rake in easy money which he could funnel into his other businesses in textiles and real estate.

With earnings in dollars from the software business, it was easy for Raju to divert the money to other businesses that his family was handling.  Meanwhile, the government has ordered investigation into all the companies under the satyam umbrella.  They are

Maytas Properties
Maytas Infra
Satyam BPO
Nipuna Services
Knowledge Dynamics
Nitor Global Solutions
CA Satyam AS
Satyam Venture Engineering Services

What’s more baffling is that the Hyderabad police is still waiting for someone to lodge a FIR against Raju before they can arrest him.  Its a known fact that Ramalinga Raju has his contacts in all the top places in politics.  His closeness to Chandra Babu Naidu and the current CM of Andhra Pradesh, YS Rajasekhar Reddy is well known.  Is that the reason why the police is apprehensive about arresting Raju fully knowing that they might step on the toes of some very powerful people?

As for the most funniest news yesterday, it seems the Crime Branch – Criminal Investigative Department (CB-CID) wing of the Hyderabad police has no idea of how to investigate an economic crime.  So, they are willing to let the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) handle this.  The CBI has a wing that is completely dedicated to investigate such crimes. So much for law enforcement.

Here’s the catch: A 3% margin — which is what Raju said Satyam had actually made — is ridiculously low in the IT industry. Forget Infosys, which made 33% in the same quarter, all IT firms of similar or even smaller size make between 20% and 30%. There’s no way Satyam, which services 185 Fortune 500 firms, could have such a low profit margin, said every analyst we spoke to. What’s more, even people in Satyam dont believe Raju. TOI, in its Thursday edition, quoted a Satyam staffer saying, “His letter implies that we worked at a margin of 3%. That’s pure unadulterated crap.”

So, if Satyam was operating on a much higher margin, why would Raju choose to say it was actually much lower? The implication is that more money was coming into the company in the form of higher profit, but it was being siphoned out.

It’s a crime to show money in the books where none existed, which is what Raju said he did. But it’s a worse crime to take out money that actually did exist. There’s speculation that Raju was doing so in order to invest in other businesses such as real estate, and did intend to put it back in Satyam at some point of time, but possibly got into such a jam that he couldnt replenish the company’s coffers.

The 3% margin question was put to the interim CEO Ram Mynampati at a press conference in Hyderabad on Thursday. He side-stepped the question.

Read the rest of the article here that indicates that Raju might not have been only responsible for inflating the cash in the books, but was in fact stealing the money made by Satyam and funnelling them into other businesses headed by members of his family.

If the above mentioned accusation can be proved by the law enforcement agencies, Ramalinga Raju is in for some serious trouble.  But like with every other offence that has occurred in our country, iam very pessimistic about Raju getting his just desserts. He might just walk off the hook and the lakhs of shareholders will be left clutching at the straws.  As for the supposedly 53,000 employees in Satyam, is it true that they really have so many employees?  Or was it another spin of the great crook called Ramalinga Raju?

Who knows?

Above cartoon from : Twenty22

+++