A load of crap from an idle brain

What a recovery it has been for the markets.  Just a year ago, the Sensex crashed to 8160 points.  Now its trading above 17000 points.  More than 100% growth in just a year.  No other sector (gold, PPF, debt, realty) would give you that kind of growth.  When the markets were down last year and i was talking about the opportunity to buy into some good companies, many of my friends dissuaded me from doing that.

“Buy when everyone sells and sell when everyone buys” is probably the only way to make money in the market.  Following the heard mentality is sure to give a lot of heart pain in the long run.

The exhilarating bounce from the lows that the Indian equity market touched on 9 March 2009 is now a year old—and what a year it has been. These 12 months have been a wildly profitable time for those brave souls who held their nerve and bought stocks, while it has been a missed opportunity for those who thought it was a short-lived bear market rally and thus preferred to sit on cash.

The benchmark Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index, or Sensex, closed on Tuesday at 17,052.54, up 109% over a year ago, though just about nobody believes the next 12 months will be as good.

Read the full article here

Above picture courtesy: Livemint

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Been swamped with work. Have no time to read websites let alone update this one. Have taken a break from reading books too as i realised that the business magazines that i had bought are gathering dust in a corner.  So, carry them in my bag to and fro work hoping to read them than stare at other people’s faces in bus/train.

Have taken tons of pictures too. No time to even sort, upload and share them.  Sometimes i feel that 24 hrs is not enough in a day.  Wish there was some way to increase the number of hours in a day.  It would be good as long as the extended hours doesnt mean that i need to spend them at work

As expected, my investments havent slacked, infact they are on the upswing.  Bought a few shares in SREI Infrastructure, Alok Industries.  But my biggest mistake has been to ignore Tata Motors.  Its the kind of multi bagger that can make you rich for life.  A year ago i bought very few of them around 140 rupees and then left it at it.  Today, Tata Motors is trading above 750 rupees.  At one point of time, it had even crossed 800.

That’s the kind of shares i should have been chasing instead of stagnant ones  like BILT and NHPC.  Another multi-bagger is L&T.  I had bought a few at around 650 rupees and today it is consistently trading above 1600 rupees.

Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well  -  Warren Buffett

I should try to follow the above mentioned statement more faithfully and only then will i be able to cash in on the opportunities that lie ahead.

Picture source: MIT Admissions

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Bill Bonner of the Daily Reckoning has for long had a bone to pick with Thomas Friedman of the New York Times. It all first started with legendary short seller James Chanos calling China “Dubai times 1,000 – or worse.” To which Thomas Friedman wrote that James Chanos should be careful about trying to “short a country that has $2 trillion in cash” in this article titled “Is China the next Enron?”

Thomas Friedman & Bill Bonner

In his article, The Long and Short of China, Bonner goes hammer and tongs at Thomas Friedman saying…

Oh happy days are here again. Obama is going to get our money back from the banks. Jeffrey Sachs is telling Haiti how it can get its economy back in order (with other people’s money, naturally). And Thomas Friedman is offering investment advice.

This should be fun. We’re all on the bus…and it’s driven by the blind, the deaf and the very dumb. Oh, sorry, we meant the visually impaired…the hearing impaired…and the mentally deficient.

Friedman is, as we all know, full of advice on just about everything. He advises finance ministers on how to soup-up their economies. He advises the Arab world on how to update its religious institutions. He advises whole nations on how to improve the future before it happens.

And here he is now counseling Mr. James Chanos, noted short seller, on how to make money

Big egos are at play here.  But its not to discount the value of the words being spoken here.  Bill Bonner, Thomas Friedman and James Chanos are all good at what they do.  They have built up a career full of backing their claims with the work they have done.

Last word on whether China is a bubble or not is yet to be spoken.  Meanwhile, Thomas Friedman finds another supporter in Keith Fitz-Gerald of Money Morning.

Above pictures courtesy: Theteemingbrain, Cityfile & Stockopedia

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India’s gold obsession never ends

At a conservative estimate of 15,000 tonnes, India’s privately held gold reserves, at present prices, are valued at $550 billion – nearly 40 per cent of India’s stock market capitalisation of $ 1.4 trillion, reveals a report from HDFC Securities. India’s net retail investment in gold has also doubled from 90 tonnes to 200 tonnes over 2003-08 and is now a $7 billion market. HDFC Securities analyst Anupam Gupta expects that a 1 per cent shift in savings from bank deposits to gold can add 4 per cent to India’s annual gold demand.

India’s obsession with gold is well known. Accumulated over generations, India’s privately held gold reserves are estimated at 15,000 to 25,000 tonnes. At present prices, this is valued at $548-913 billion and can act as a potent driver to sustain the wealth effect in India. While jewellery remains the dominant mode of possessing gold, India’s net retail investment doubled to 200 tonnes in 2008 from 90 tonnes in 2003, reflecting a marked shift in consumer attitude towards gold as an asset, the report said

Another way to look at gold ownership in India is to compare it to annual savings patterns. Indians purchased 660 tonnes, or $19 billion, of gold in 2008, which formed an approximate 15 per cent of physical savings and 5 per cent of total savings. “This implies enough headroom for growth because attitude toward gold ownership changes from jewellery to investment. As attitudes change, we expect Indians to open up to the idea of owning gold as an investment, rather than an asset,” Gupta said.

Gold loans also present a huge opportunity. Even if banks tap 5 per cent of average private gold reserves of 20,000 tonnes, this translates to a market size of $37 billion, Gupta said. Banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), such as Manappuram General Finance and Muthoot Finance are expanding their network to tap into this fast-growing and underserviced market.

News source: MydigitalFC

Picture source: CometoIndia

Previous articles on Gold & India
RBI buys 200 tonnes of gold from IMF
Joy Alukkas to open world’s biggest jewellery shop in Chennai

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We are already 6 days into the new year.  I dont see much changes happening around and wonder why people blew up so much money boozing, eating, partying away and on firecrackers to bring in the new year.  The first day of the new year was the same.  The sun rose in the east, it felt like just another day. Anyway, if you ask an economist, they will say that its all these foolish spending that fuels the economy.

Generally, when asked for resolutions, i always maintain that “my resolution for this year is to have no resolutions“.  But then i make my secret list every year and work on them.  At the end of the year, i do an analysis to see if things went according to plan or not.  I hardly manage to accomplish around 20-30% of my targets every year and i realise that its a pathetic performance.

This year’s targets are also ambitious (as always).  Not sure if i can make any significant dent in it, but lets see.

Reading a lot is one of the priority this year and am simultaneously reading 2 books, not to mention magazines and other work relate books that i read.

Hope to be much more regular in blogging this year.  Hope the stock markets remain depressed all through the year and give me option to buy lots of good stock at cheaper prices.  Since my investments are for the longer term, i dont mind a few more years of depression / recession.

Its only when there is blood on the streets that you manage to find the best companies to buy.

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