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3 big states (West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu) and one politically strategic state (Delhi) is now ruled by women.  Not to mention the President of India, Pratibha Patil, the leader of the ruling party, Sonia Gandhi, leader of the opposition, Sushma Swaraj.   India is today the perfect poster child for women’s empowerment.

Most of the above mentioned women (except Sonia Gandhi) have made it on their own.  Of course they had their own mentors on the way up.  But they made it on their sheer dint of hard work and perseverance.

Am not sure if there is any big country in the world where women are in power in such a big capacity.  So, its 3 cheers to the populace who voted all these women to power.  Hopefully unlike the men who screwed up the country royally, the women would do a better job.

Hope Jayalalitha would keep her vindictive streak in the backburner and let law takes its course on the various scams perpetrated under the DMK reign.   Hope Mamta Banerjee will realise that she is the leader of the ruling party now and ditch her habit of going on a strike / hartal every time her ego has been hurt.  Am sure the Commies wouldnt have taken the kick in the butt given to them by the people of the state of Bengal in the right spirit and try to rake up problems for the new government.  Afterall, the Commies are synonymous with inefficiency, violence, ineptitude and failure.

Here’s 3 cheers to the women power and hoping that Behenji will finally wake up from the slumber and stop building more statues and do something for the chronically backward state of  Uttar Pradesh.  Hope Shiela Dikshit will keep up the good work of transforming the infrastructure of Delhi from a sleepy bureaucratic city to a modern mega-metropolis.

Headline taken from: Ibnlive

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Finished reading this book almost a month ago, but due to paucity of time almost forgot to write about this book.

This book is a look into the next 100 years by George Friedman (no relation to Thomas Friedman of the New York Times).  George Friedman is the chief executive of STRATFOR, a private global intelligence firm he founded in 1996. He has spent more than 20 years teaching political science and has commented extensively on security and defense issues.

Though its difficult to accurately predict what can happen next year, Friedman lets his thoughts into the next 100 years based on the situations and issues that have shaped the past 100-200 years.  Based on this he comes to the conclusion that in the next 100 years, the major powers of the world would be (hold your breath) USA, Japan, Poland and Turkey.

He goes on to describe that by the end of the current decade (2020), China would have disintegrated and Tibet liberated with active participation by India and China will either go back to its closed doors policy or become a non-entity.  Yes, China has to keep up its blistering growth or else there could be serious trouble among its population which has no other outlet to express its disenchantment against the communist government.  But to think that the communist government hasnt thought about it and doesnt have a plan B is difficult to imagine.

The author asserts that the United States power is so extraordinarily overwhelming that it will dominate the coming century, brushing aside Islamic terrorist threats now, overcoming a resurgent Russia in the 2010s and 20s and eventually gaining influence over space-based missile systems that Friedman names battle stars. Friedman is the founder of Stratfor, an independent geopolitical forecasting company, and his authoritative-sounding predictions are based on such factors as natural resources and population cycles. While these concrete measures lend his short-term forecasts credence, the later years of Friedmans 100-year cycle will provoke some serious eyebrow raising. The armed border clashes between Mexico and the United States in the 2080s seem relatively plausible, but the space war pitting Japan and Turkey against the United States and allies, prognosticated to begin precisely on Thanksgiving Day 2050, reads as fantastic (and terrifying) science fiction. Whether all of the visions in Friedmans crystal ball actually materialize, they certainly make for engrossing entertainment.

source: Amazon

There are a lot of issues on which i dont agree with the author of the book.  Other than a few instances, Friedman makes no mention of India in the whole book.  He says that India would be a regional power with no impact on the global affairs.  I cant understand how he manages to just discard a country that could have 1.5 billion people by 2050, the world’s top 5 standing army, one of the best airforce and naval power, not to mention an economy of at least $ 20 trillion by 2050 (conservative estimates).

I tried making a small comparison chart of the countries that are supposed to be significant players (according to Friedman) in the next 100 years versus India.  A cursory glance at the figures and its easy to see why the book is way off on its prediction.

* Data belongs to year 2009
** All figures are in US dollars
*** GDP & per capita is PPP
**** Data sourced from CIA website

But he goes on and on about Turkey and Poland being significant leaders in Europe who will militarily crush the rest of Europe.  There is hardly any mention of France or Britain.  Germany according to Friedman would be on the decline.  Agreed on that, but to dismiss the German power with regards to Turkey and Poland is simply too far fetched.

He also speaks a lot about Mexico which could be the top 10 economies by 2050, but no mention of India which could be the top 3 economy by 2050.  The author looks too enamoured by USA and believes that they will maintain status quo into the next 100 odd years.  Of course, no one believes that US will just lie down and die, but to imagine that the disastrous economic policies pursued by USA would have no impact into the future is a bit too far fetched to believe.  As for Japan, its negative population growth combined with its insignificant economic growth for the past 20 odd years have dented its abilities both on the economic as well as military front.  As a country that doesnt encourage any form of immigration, Japan will be in deep trouble as it has to cope with a rapidly graying population.  If it opens its doors to immigration, its will have to face a lot of social tensions.

The book is a good read, if you are into fantasies and would love to have a good laugh.  Surely not a book to be taken seriously.

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
Author – George Friedman
Pages – 272
Publisher – Doubleday

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We are in the midst of a daily scam unraveling.  What does this say about the times or the society we live in?  I suppose, we were always corrupt, it was ingrained in our DNA.  Its only now that the skeletons are tumbling out.  Whether its the 2G scam, Adarsh scam, Commonwealth games scam, Kargil coffin scam, mining scam of Karnataka, the land scam concerning Yedyurappa, Satyam scam, Telgi scam, Harshad Mehta scam and the thousands other that are swirling in the news.

The scams were always happening. Its just that only now they are unraveling.  Does anyone remember the time when buying a scooter, ambassador car, telephone etc used to have a waiting time of years.  Today, you can throw in some money and take your pick.  Liberalisation has in fact brought down corruption a lot.  Earlier not a single file moved in the government office without bribe being paid.  Today a lot of government job can be done on the internet without the need for stepping into an office.  Just a decade ago, the government run PSU banks ran amuck. I remember having the misfortune of going to the banks to create a Demand Draft and know the headaches I had to endure.

Today, the private banks have revolutionised the business.  Hardly anyone of the present generation visits those PSU banks. The PSU banks are bending over backwards to win their business. Getting a driving license is not a chore anymore too. Many of the government work is either become efficient due to private sector competition or due to the introduction of technology.

Does it mean that all is hunky dory?  No, it isnt. The poor even today have to endure the red tape of the government.  Getting the loans granted by the government in their hands is at the mercy of the officer who is disbursing it.  After a catastrophe, the government declares an ex-gratia.  But the official overseeing the disbursal will make sure he get his cut before the money is given.  This trait of feeding over the dead body has been prevalent for decades.  Today, its a bit more difficult as you can call up the media to raise a muck and make sure the money is disbursed faster without any corruption in between.

So, why is it that so many scams are surfacing?  Truth is that the scams have been in our midst for decades.  Kalmadi was not involved in the sports graft for the first time.  He is a survivor in that business for decades.  His family and his cronies have made millions over these years.  People knew that yet didnt raise the muck because it was mostly hidden.  One didnt have access to all the information. Today the Right to Information (RTI) act and other kinds of citizen & judicial activism has increased. People are more aware of their rights and hence all these skeletons tumbling out.

Another reason is because the political parties themselves use these scams to settle scores. Its a simple theory which goes like… you expose one scam of mine and i do the same about you.  None of them are about public welfare nor is that only one political party is responsible for the mess.

Both the BJP and Congress are 2 sides of the same coin.  Both corrupt to the core.  If you were believing that the BJP led NDA was supposed to give you an alternative, you were living in a fools paradise. The NDA and its constituents are as equally bad as the UPA if not worse.

The Radia tapes doesnt reveal anything new.  Its a known issue that during the license permit raj of the 70s to 90s, businessmen used to pamper the politicians in power so that they could bag business or made sure that some of the laws were tweaked in their favour.  Today with lots of bidding and laws being online, its gone down to a large extent.  Even the media was nothing holy.  Currying favour with the media to carry their side of the story by politicians and businessmen was the norm earlier too.  Today its given a respectable name like Corporate Relations or Public Relations.

Anyway what i find baffling is the common man’s surprise at all these events.  Let’s face it.  We Indians have corruption engrained in our DNA.  We are taught from young on how to circumvent the rules, how to bribe the policeman to get away, to bribe the municipality to extend the height of the house by another floor etc.  If there was no TDS, am sure none of the so called “middle class” in India would pay taxes.  In fact the middle class of India are the biggest hypocrites you can encounter.

How did Raja, Kalmadi, Chavan, Yeddyurappa, Karunanidhi, Lalu, Mayawati etc come to power?  We voted them to power.  To satisfy our silly egos, to protect our so called religious casteist, regional beliefs etc we vote them to power.  Integrity is not something we are known for.  Everything and anything goes.  We are good at masking our incompetence with the national slogan of chalta hai attitude.  As government officials, we take bribe to do our work.  Our police takes bribe from the mafia and look the other way as they go about killing innocents and trading in arms and drugs.  We ourselves screw up our society and then blame all and sundry.

The rot is set.  Its a part of us.  Its in our system.  Its in our blood.  So, lets look within ourselves and cleanse ourselves as we go about uprooting this cancer of corruption from our midst.

Above pictures courtesy: Akalol & Indiabuzzing

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Good to see a thumping victory of the JD-BJP combine in Bihar.  After keeping Bihar in the dark ages, Lalu Prasad believed that the people of Bihar wouldnt want to see the development anymore.

A win for Congress-RJD would have been a trip back to the stone age for Bihar. Nitish Kumar has got an overwhelming mandate from the public.  No matter how much the Congress tries to portray that the win for Nitish was nothing but a rejection of Lalu’s politics, they cant deny the fact that people have virtually rejected them too.  For the party ruling at the center to win /lead in less than 10 seats in a 243 member assembly is a new low.

People are increasingly voting for roti-kapada-makaan and other necessities in life.  No one bothers about reservations, mandir-masjid, communal and other caste politics anymore.  There is a whole new generation of kids who have been born post the 1991 liberalisation.

The new India demands development.  Hope the Thuggerays in Bombay realise that probably they need to stop beating up the migrants from Bihar.  Sooner or later no one would want to end up in the corrupt and crumbling Slumbay Bombay anymore.  Hope the corrupt Congress in Maharashtra gets the message too.   Not to mention the constant feuding AP Congress.

3 Cheers again to Nitish Kumar for his developmental politics. May his tribe increase.

PS: Guess what is the other heartening news?  The complete rout of the commies

Above picture courtesy: IBNLive

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For years China has been pursuing its policy of a string of pearls; which meant having naval stations around the Indian subcontinent as a means of encircling India.  The building of a port in the Sri Lankan town of Hambantota, Gwadar in Pakistan, courting the island states of Seychelles, Maldives, Mauritius and not to mention Myanmar.

Unwittingly of course, India had been resorting to its own plan of undoing this pearls by its Look East policy that it put in place a couple of decades ago.  Over these years, India has strengthend not only economic, but also military partnership with some key nations of South East & East Asia like Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand & Singapore.

Its no secret that China is one of the biggest trading partner of ASEAN as well as of Japan & South Korea.  But its also a fact that most of these countries are not comfortable with the flooding their domestic markets with Chinese goods.  Also China’s yuan manipulation keeps the prices of their goods cheaper and affects the local economies of countries like Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia etc.  And many of these countries are already protesting the same.

The increasing economic clout of China has also massaged its military ego and it now has a lot of territorial claims against countries like Japan, Vietnam and other South East Asian countries.

It is in this context that one can see how India’s Look East policy is reaping rich dividends.  Not only has it led to economic benefits, but also robust military exchanges between the countries and India.

In all these hoopla, what is not being missed is the increasing defence collaboration between the militaries of America and India.  During the cold war era, India was fully dependent on the Russians for arms supply.  with the collapse of the USSR, the spares dreid up and defence procurement dipped to a low for India. During the Kargil war, it was the Israelis who came to India’s aid with timely supplies of spares and the required ammunition.

Today Israel and the US are increasingly becoming the biggest arms suppliers to India. Over the last couple of years, India has purchased six C-130J Super Hercules aircraft for almost US$1 billion and eight Boeing P-8I planes for more than US$2 billion (2009) from the US.

Also US is in running to bag the massive $12 billion 126 advanced figher for which the testing is already underway.

Though it would do a world of good for India to have a coherent defence policy instead of buying piecemeal arms and ammunitions.  Not to mention try to have an indegenous arms production industry within the country.  Depending on the DRDO and its allied organisations is a suicidal step for the country.  Privatisation of the defence industry would go a long step in indigenisation of defence technology.   The Mahindras, L&T, Tatas are increasing their participation in defence technology and it would do a lot of good in future.

Some good reads on this topic

How India is undoing China’s string of pearls
Delhi’s obsequious Obamamania
India counters China’s “String of Pearls” through Naval Diplomacy

Above pictures courtesy: Tactical Life & Twenty22

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