A load of crap from an idle brain

Finished reading this book almost a month ago, but due to paucity of time almost forgot to write about this book.

This book is a look into the next 100 years by George Friedman (no relation to Thomas Friedman of the New York Times).  George Friedman is the chief executive of STRATFOR, a private global intelligence firm he founded in 1996. He has spent more than 20 years teaching political science and has commented extensively on security and defense issues.

Though its difficult to accurately predict what can happen next year, Friedman lets his thoughts into the next 100 years based on the situations and issues that have shaped the past 100-200 years.  Based on this he comes to the conclusion that in the next 100 years, the major powers of the world would be (hold your breath) USA, Japan, Poland and Turkey.

He goes on to describe that by the end of the current decade (2020), China would have disintegrated and Tibet liberated with active participation by India and China will either go back to its closed doors policy or become a non-entity.  Yes, China has to keep up its blistering growth or else there could be serious trouble among its population which has no other outlet to express its disenchantment against the communist government.  But to think that the communist government hasnt thought about it and doesnt have a plan B is difficult to imagine.

The author asserts that the United States power is so extraordinarily overwhelming that it will dominate the coming century, brushing aside Islamic terrorist threats now, overcoming a resurgent Russia in the 2010s and 20s and eventually gaining influence over space-based missile systems that Friedman names battle stars. Friedman is the founder of Stratfor, an independent geopolitical forecasting company, and his authoritative-sounding predictions are based on such factors as natural resources and population cycles. While these concrete measures lend his short-term forecasts credence, the later years of Friedmans 100-year cycle will provoke some serious eyebrow raising. The armed border clashes between Mexico and the United States in the 2080s seem relatively plausible, but the space war pitting Japan and Turkey against the United States and allies, prognosticated to begin precisely on Thanksgiving Day 2050, reads as fantastic (and terrifying) science fiction. Whether all of the visions in Friedmans crystal ball actually materialize, they certainly make for engrossing entertainment.

source: Amazon

There are a lot of issues on which i dont agree with the author of the book.  Other than a few instances, Friedman makes no mention of India in the whole book.  He says that India would be a regional power with no impact on the global affairs.  I cant understand how he manages to just discard a country that could have 1.5 billion people by 2050, the world’s top 5 standing army, one of the best airforce and naval power, not to mention an economy of at least $ 20 trillion by 2050 (conservative estimates).

I tried making a small comparison chart of the countries that are supposed to be significant players (according to Friedman) in the next 100 years versus India.  A cursory glance at the figures and its easy to see why the book is way off on its prediction.

* Data belongs to year 2009
** All figures are in US dollars
*** GDP & per capita is PPP
**** Data sourced from CIA website

But he goes on and on about Turkey and Poland being significant leaders in Europe who will militarily crush the rest of Europe.  There is hardly any mention of France or Britain.  Germany according to Friedman would be on the decline.  Agreed on that, but to dismiss the German power with regards to Turkey and Poland is simply too far fetched.

He also speaks a lot about Mexico which could be the top 10 economies by 2050, but no mention of India which could be the top 3 economy by 2050.  The author looks too enamoured by USA and believes that they will maintain status quo into the next 100 odd years.  Of course, no one believes that US will just lie down and die, but to imagine that the disastrous economic policies pursued by USA would have no impact into the future is a bit too far fetched to believe.  As for Japan, its negative population growth combined with its insignificant economic growth for the past 20 odd years have dented its abilities both on the economic as well as military front.  As a country that doesnt encourage any form of immigration, Japan will be in deep trouble as it has to cope with a rapidly graying population.  If it opens its doors to immigration, its will have to face a lot of social tensions.

The book is a good read, if you are into fantasies and would love to have a good laugh.  Surely not a book to be taken seriously.

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
Author – George Friedman
Pages – 272
Publisher – Doubleday

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At a time of overhyped & corrupt cricketers and our so called Gods of cricket who refuse to stand up for the game and hide behind the fig leaf of “I have never seen any match fixing happen in all my life”, its refreshing to see a gold medal in the world wrestling championship.

3 cheers for Sushil Kumar and here’s wishing him the best for the forthcoming Commonwealth Games to be held in Delhi in October.

Sushil became the first Indian wrestler to win gold at a senior world championship after outclassing Alan Gogaev of Russia 3-1 in straight rounds in the final of the 66 kg freestyle category at the Olympiskiy Sports Centre in Moscow.

The dominating fashion in which Sushil, bronze medalist at the 2008 Beijing Olympics, won the title clash is proof of the Najafgarh wrestler’s dominance in the category.

Sushil, known for his power-game, went on the offensive at the start of the first two-minute round in the final bout. The 27-year-old used his leg take-down moves to unsettle the technically sound Russian and scored two quick points to control the proceedings there after. And though Gogaev took a point back, Sushil closed the opening round 2-1 with some solid defence.

Gogaev went on the offensive in the start of the second period, but the experienced Sushil controlled his younger rival and scored a point with another take down to surprise the home crowd as the Indian contingent went berserk. The Russians were surprised perhaps with the loss on home turf but the Indian team officials expected nothing but gold from their champion.

Read the full article here

Above picture courtesy: Samrao

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Prime Minister Vladimir Putin closed more than $10 billion in agreements with India, increasing Russia’s role as a partner in defense, nuclear energy, aerospace and communications.

“Putin has been the architect of the strategic partnership between India and Russia,” Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said after meeting with his Russian counterpart in New Delhi today. “Relations with Russia are a key pillar of our foreign policy.”

Putin, in five visits over the past decade, has spearheaded Russia’s effort to revive Cold War-era ties to India and fend off growing competition for defense and energy contracts from the U.S. and Europe. The Kremlin is playing on Indian ambitions to become a global power capable of rivaling China and sending manned missions to outer space.

Russian companies signed more than a dozen deals, including agreements to deliver India’s second aircraft carrier in 2012, build as many as 16 nuclear reactors and sell 29 MiG-29 fighter jets. India also became the first country to win access to military use of Russia’s Glonass navigation network, a rival to the U.S. Global Positioning System. Putin promised to help send India’s first cosmonaut into space in three years and held open the possibility of joint moon exploration.

Full article here

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Leander Paes equalled the record for most Grand Slam title triumphs by an Indian as the veteran and his Zimbabwean partner Cara Black clinched the Australian Open mixed doubles Championship with a straight-set win here on Sunday. Top seeds and favourites, the 36-year-old Paes and the 30-year-old Black beat 10th seeds Ekaterina Makarova of Russia and Jaroslav Levinsky of Czechoslovakia 7-5 6-3 in just about one and a half hour.

The triumph gave the Indian his 11th overall and fifth mixed doubles title. With this, Paes has equalled one-time doubles’ partner Mahesh Bhupathi’s tally. The last couple of times they reached a Grand Slam final, Paes and Black ended up on the losing side and eager to make amends for that, they were dominant from the word go.

They broke their rivals as early as in the third game and save for a couple of breaks lost on Black’s serve, the Indo-Zimbabwean pair seemed hardly troubled by Makarova and Levinsky, who committed far too many unforced errors. Black, whose net game and serve were the weak links for the top seeds, raised her game when it mattered after getting some pep talk from Paes.

Full article here

Above picture source: Topnews

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Picked this book at the library just for the heck of it and it really turned out to be a racy read.  Andy Hayman, Asst Commisioner at the Scotland Yard was in overall command of the counter terrorism offensive at the time of the bombings in the bus and train tunnels in London.

He writes about the way the police along with the MI5, MI6, and various other investigative agencies put the pieces together in the biggest manhunt ever undertaken in the UK to catch the culprits involved in the mayhem.

Andy also goes about his frustration with the inefficient policing and investigative system; the self centered politician who wants his 2 minutes of fame; the ego clashes within the police department which are neatly exploited by the terrorists etc.

Assistant Commissioner Andy Hayman, CBE, QPM, was in overall command of the UK’s national counter-terrorism offensive, at the centre of every major terrorist investigation – overt and covert – of the past five years. He handled the Metropolitan Police’s response to 7/7 and dealt with the politically explosive murder of the Russian dissident Alexander Litvinenko.

Based at New Scotland Yard, in charge of thousands of Special Branch and counter-terrorism officers in the UK and across the globe, deciding strategy, working directly with the Prime Minister with a budget of GBP500 million, Hayman is able to give unprecedented insight into key top-level crisis meetings he attended with intelligence chiefs and political leaders worldwide. In an inspirational and at times heart-breaking account, he describes how he led a dedicated team of men and women, committed to protecting the UK from dangerous enemies. Hayman lived through the pain and soul-searching when terrorists did succeed – and the pride when intelligence officers prevented attacks.

Andy Hayman leaves no holds barred in his analysis of the way law enforcers tackle terrorism. He outlines his radical blueprint for the future to protect the public, in the run-up to the 2012 Olympic Games and beyond. If you thought you knew the stories behind the news, you’ll realise you didn’t until you read this book.

The Terrorist Hunters
Authors – Andy Hayman & Margaret Gilmore
Pages – 352
Publisher – Bantam Press

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