A load of crap from an idle brain

What a recovery it has been for the markets.  Just a year ago, the Sensex crashed to 8160 points.  Now its trading above 17000 points.  More than 100% growth in just a year.  No other sector (gold, PPF, debt, realty) would give you that kind of growth.  When the markets were down last year and i was talking about the opportunity to buy into some good companies, many of my friends dissuaded me from doing that.

“Buy when everyone sells and sell when everyone buys” is probably the only way to make money in the market.  Following the heard mentality is sure to give a lot of heart pain in the long run.

The exhilarating bounce from the lows that the Indian equity market touched on 9 March 2009 is now a year old—and what a year it has been. These 12 months have been a wildly profitable time for those brave souls who held their nerve and bought stocks, while it has been a missed opportunity for those who thought it was a short-lived bear market rally and thus preferred to sit on cash.

The benchmark Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index, or Sensex, closed on Tuesday at 17,052.54, up 109% over a year ago, though just about nobody believes the next 12 months will be as good.

Read the full article here

Above picture courtesy: Livemint

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Bill Bonner of the Daily Reckoning has for long had a bone to pick with Thomas Friedman of the New York Times. It all first started with legendary short seller James Chanos calling China “Dubai times 1,000 – or worse.” To which Thomas Friedman wrote that James Chanos should be careful about trying to “short a country that has $2 trillion in cash” in this article titled “Is China the next Enron?”

Thomas Friedman & Bill Bonner

In his article, The Long and Short of China, Bonner goes hammer and tongs at Thomas Friedman saying…

Oh happy days are here again. Obama is going to get our money back from the banks. Jeffrey Sachs is telling Haiti how it can get its economy back in order (with other people’s money, naturally). And Thomas Friedman is offering investment advice.

This should be fun. We’re all on the bus…and it’s driven by the blind, the deaf and the very dumb. Oh, sorry, we meant the visually impaired…the hearing impaired…and the mentally deficient.

Friedman is, as we all know, full of advice on just about everything. He advises finance ministers on how to soup-up their economies. He advises the Arab world on how to update its religious institutions. He advises whole nations on how to improve the future before it happens.

And here he is now counseling Mr. James Chanos, noted short seller, on how to make money

Big egos are at play here.  But its not to discount the value of the words being spoken here.  Bill Bonner, Thomas Friedman and James Chanos are all good at what they do.  They have built up a career full of backing their claims with the work they have done.

Last word on whether China is a bubble or not is yet to be spoken.  Meanwhile, Thomas Friedman finds another supporter in Keith Fitz-Gerald of Money Morning.

Above pictures courtesy: Theteemingbrain, Cityfile & Stockopedia

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We are already 6 days into the new year.  I dont see much changes happening around and wonder why people blew up so much money boozing, eating, partying away and on firecrackers to bring in the new year.  The first day of the new year was the same.  The sun rose in the east, it felt like just another day. Anyway, if you ask an economist, they will say that its all these foolish spending that fuels the economy.

Generally, when asked for resolutions, i always maintain that “my resolution for this year is to have no resolutions“.  But then i make my secret list every year and work on them.  At the end of the year, i do an analysis to see if things went according to plan or not.  I hardly manage to accomplish around 20-30% of my targets every year and i realise that its a pathetic performance.

This year’s targets are also ambitious (as always).  Not sure if i can make any significant dent in it, but lets see.

Reading a lot is one of the priority this year and am simultaneously reading 2 books, not to mention magazines and other work relate books that i read.

Hope to be much more regular in blogging this year.  Hope the stock markets remain depressed all through the year and give me option to buy lots of good stock at cheaper prices.  Since my investments are for the longer term, i dont mind a few more years of depression / recession.

Its only when there is blood on the streets that you manage to find the best companies to buy.

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Am on a reading spree these days.  Actually started reading this book almost a month ago.  Considering the speed at which i read, its a miracle that i managed to wrap it up around 30-40 days.

The book is by legendary investor, Peter Lynch.  Its actually a book for beginners to investing.  Peter writes about the importance of investing early in life, and he puts forth his case of why equities are the place to invest in.  He is more bullish on investing in Equities than Gold, Real Estate, Bonds, Mutual Funds and other investments.

According to Wikipedia, Peter Lynch is currently a research consultant at Fidelity Investments and has a net worth of US$ 352 million.  His other two books, One up on Wall Street and Beating the street are considered must reads for anyone interested in investing.

The book is all about basics of investments and business.  And if you are interested in reading about the origin of business in the US, the reason for America to go the capitalist way, the earliest billionaires in the country…it makes for a fascinating reading.

Though the book is completely based on the American business and economy, the book does give you a lot of much needed information of how to go about investing, how to read the balance sheet, the basis of investments etc in a very easy to read manner.

If you want to inculcate the habit of investments and savings in your kids life while they are young, this should be one of the earliest books for them to be introduced to.  Its a good book for grown ups too who want to enter into the world of savings and investing.

One of the best managers in the history of mutual funds, Lynch is certainly the person to help people choose the right stocks and understand the market. More so than One Up on Wall Street or Beating the Street, this Lynch book is for beginning investors of all ages. Lynch and coauthor John Rothchild are family men who are worried that teenagers aren’t learning enough about the importance of American companies in improving lives and creating wealth. Lynch questions why students are taught that Hamlet was a tragic hero and Napoleon was a great general, but they don’t know that Sam Walton founded Wal-Mart. In fact, Lynch’s grasp of the past is one of the strengths of the book. One of the best chapters is “A Short History of Capitalism,” a witty and homespun look at characters like Karl Marx, the Communist who believed capitalism was doomed, and the robber barons, the shrewd railroad magnates of the late 19th century who amassed huge fortunes by manipulating the markets.

Unlike the robber barons, beginning investors, Lynch says, should stick to the basics: get in the habit of saving and investing and putting aside a certain amount every month; develop a strong stomach because the stock market is going to fall and there’s no way to anticipate it; do a little homework so you can understand the reasons to own a particular stock; and buy shares in solid companies and don’t let go of them without a good reason.

Peter Lynch – Learn to Earn: A beginner’s guide to the basics of investing and business.
Authors – Peter Lynch & John Rothchild
Pages – 270
Publisher – Simon & Schuster

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Continuing from the previous post about the equity portfolio, this is the mutual funds portfolio. Over a period of time, Franklin Templeton Prima fund went from being a 5 star to a 2 star fund.  It has underperformed the peers in the market, but compared to the S&P CNX Nifty over a period of time, it has always shown better results.

Reliance Growth has been one of the best funds ever if you want a pure diversified equity player.   HDFC prudence is a good balanced fund.  It invests a good chunk of the money in debt as well as keeps a bit of the money aside as cash.  So, even thought it might not give you stupendous returns like a pure equity fund can, this one gives stability to your portfolio.

PS: This post has been tagged in the Investments page.

All above information taken from: Valueresearchonline

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