Work has been too tough and nerve wracking ever since i moved into the new department more than 5 months ago (ya, time flies), not to mention colleagues who are of no use to the team but somehow manage to survive at work inspite of doing nothing productive. Ya, life is a big bunch of surprises.  The ones who work are questioned when there is a lapse on their end, but some people just laze around at work and unashamedly take the salary at the end of the month and no one even bats an eyelid.

Anyways, over a period of time have steeled myself to ignore such characters and sideline them.  There are others who are enthusiastic about work and they are the ones who really encourage me to look forward to going back to work daily.

But this week off was a much needed one.  Have been doing nothing but having good home cooked food, having my regular post lunch naps, wandering aimlessly around the city, reading books on the couch and most importantly watching the financial markets melt the world over.  Watching this self inflicted wound by the US not only to itself but criminally exporting its problems to the worldwide economies is simply mind boggling to watch.  Not to mention morons like Alan Greenspan openly bragging that this debt ceiling is of no issue to the US as they can print as much dollars they want.  Now beat that.

The funniest part of the whole debt problem is the reaction from China which blasted the US for its uninhibited funding of its consumerism by debt.  But why is China so worried about the debt downgrade of the US from AAA to AA+ by S&P ?  Its because China holds more than a trillion dollars worth of US debt.  The more irony comes from the fact that just a few months ago, some so-called Chinese thinkers were threatening to dump dollars that China is holding in the form of its foreign reserves to show who the boss is.  Which makes one wonder, if China dumps the dollar, which moron in the world wants to buy it?  And if it dumps the dollar and the value of the dollar takes a nosedive further eroding the value of the reserves its holding, who is China threatening in the first place?  Its like cutting the nose to spite the face.  The whole fracas reminds me of the saying that i had posted sometime earlier in this blog….

“If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.” – J Paul Getty

China today finds itself between the devil and the deep sea.  On one hand it needs to keep the yuan weaker by buying up all the dollars else the export oriented economy that China has carefully built up over the decades will collapse.  With thousands of riots happening countrywide, the Communist government doesn’t want another disaster on its hands.

And its not easy to make a complete turnaround of the economy from an exporting one to a local consumer led economy.  The transition takes years to happen. So, it keeps buying up dollars to keep its own currency cheaper and with the US dollar collapsing to newer lows, everyone is at their wits end trying to hold things together.

So, what to do now?  Nothing much..if you have money sit tight or start buying into blue chips in small tranches.  For the ones who sold off their equity holdings a few months earlier, i have nothing but admiration for your foresight.  For those who plan to sell during the collapse now, there is nothing more foolish decision than that.

Gold is scaling new heights daily as the US dollar loses its value.  Its gonna be a turbulent few months ahead.  Sit tight, there is much more trouble ahead.  Like the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett once said…

“Its only when the tide goes out that you learn who has been swimming naked”

Pictures courtesy: Now Public, Guardian, wmpoweruser

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I decided to not only save a small part of my salary but also start investing. Real estate was out of question as it required a bigger monetary commitment and i was loathe investing in land that could some day be encroached and i would need to run around the authorities and people in power to get them evicted.

The next best option was the stock market.  It didn’t require a huge upfront money and also because of Systematic Investment Plan (SIP), i could invest a small amount every month in the mutual funds.  Also because of demat, it was easy for me to buy small number of shares of the companies that i liked.  Since my knowledge of economics, finance and the stock market in general was a big zero, i had to educate myself.  I attended a few seminars, but at the end realised that they were nothing but big money making scams.

This is when i truly realized the power of the internet.  With some great help from Google uncle, i jumped headlong into an intense 12 month study of the stock markets. I searched for information like crazy on equities and mutual funds. By then i had more or less realised that i was going to concentrate primarily in the Indian stock markets.  A developing economy which
was consistently clocking above 7% growth every year and a huge market, i realised that if i could get in early, i could probably ride a 20-30 year long boom.

India was then just starting off.  The BSE Sensex was then around 4500 (it has since climbed to 21,000, then fell to 9000 odd and is now back to 19000). I remember reading an Indian business magazine that pointed to a target 8000 for BSE Sensex in a few months time.  I chuckled to myself at the audacity of that heading.  But still deep down in my heart somewhere I had the belief that we were looking at something spectacular that was about to happen.

Imagine a country of a billion people and with the economy clocking 7-8% annual growth in GDP, it was sure to hit a trillion dollars soon and if the rate of growth could be kept up, then the next trillion could come in 8-9 years.  Yes, there were and are lots of things that could derail the growth. Terrorism emanating from Pakistan being just one such issue. Poverty, rampant corruption (that has become a norm these days), a closed economy, religious and regional violence…many issues could be an impediment to India’s growth and thus hit my investments in the market.

But honestly, when you realise that you are in the pits, the only way to go is up.  I took the risk and opened a demat account.  Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) was getting listed on the Indian stock markets for the first time ever in 2004.  I applied for the IPO and was allotted a measly 7 shares at 850 rupees each.  I was disappointed at not having been allotted more. Nervethless,  i held on.  A few months later the stock hit 1400 rupees.  I sold off at almost 550 rupees profit per share.  I made more than 3800 rupees (not accounting for taxes) in a few months by investing in TCS.

I had tasted blood.

Target 2015 continues….

Above target picture courtesy: David Hawkins

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Work is too hectic.  Been more than a week into the new position.  Lots of responsibilities and lots to learn.  Challenging no doubt, but happy that Iam learning a lot.  Been stuck in the rut for some time now.  Took this leap of faith and till now, its been pretty satisfying.

The markets have been on a roller coaster.  Up one day and down the next 2 days.  Havent had time to look at my portfolio which has been red when i saw last week.  Not thinking much about it.  Bought some good companies (i believe) on the dips and i will now wait for the market to go up.  There are indications that it might go down further.  No worries.  Will wait for it to go up.

Meanwhile, the cricket world cup is in full flow.  India is now on the top of the table, but had just one challenging match (against England).  The match against South Africa this weekend will be the one to watch out for.

Meanwhile reading a lot of finance / investment books.   Am in the process of making changes to my career and life in general.  As and when significant changes happen, i will update here.  Till  then, let things drift.

There was a time when i had trouble reading one book.  Today, am simultaneously reading 4 books, 2 magazines and books related to the course iam attending.  Not to mention technical documents related to work.   I cant believe that i have time to do all that.  Wifey hasnt had any complaints that iam not spending time with her.  In the past few months, have gone to the Zoo, Bird Park, Marina Bay Sands, Singapore Science Center and a few other places with her.  More places here in Singapore to explore.  Wanted to go overseas for a holiday, but am waiting for some time for me to get settled into the new job responsibilities.

Time isnt a hindrance if one plans properly.  Earlier, i was too lethargic. This year of the rabbit has been too good for me already.  Hope the luck stays.  I need it.  Have a lot to achieve this year.

The woods are lovely, dark and deep,
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.
- Robert Frost

A big thank you and wishes to all the women who have touched me in some way and been a part of my life.  Thanks a million.  Wishing the best on the centenary celebrations of the International Womens Day – 2011.

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Of course nothing can be predicted about the future.  The market conditions might become better, the Egypt political crisis might be solved, the companies could come out with better results in the next few quarters, the government might get tough on graft and a few politicians & their crony businessmen might end up in jail.

BSE Sensex performance in the past 1 month (courtesy: Yahoo finance)

Meanwhile, some of the best blue chip stocks and companies with strong fundamentals have been beaten down 20-40%.  This is another of the great time for a fence sitter to invest.  I have done too.

Bought a few stocks of Sintex Industries, Punjab & Sind Bank, Kanoria Chemicals, Noida Toll Bridge and averaged out the badly battered stocks of  MIC Electronics & 3I Infotech.

At the end of last year sold off Suzlon Energy, Reliance Communications (my worst investment ever. I would never buy any Anil Ambani companies again) and Punj Lloyd (another laggard not only on the stock market, but also in business).   I had sold them off for a loss.  It would have been a bigger loss if i had held them on as all 3 of them have been beaten down very badly.

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Bought 3I Infotech & Noida Toll Bridge for the first time. Increased my holdings in Graphite India & MIC Electronics.

With the 1:1 bonus shares issued by Dabur & TVS motors, the portfolio looks good

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Most surprisingly, it was engaging and i was never bored.  Considering the short attention span that i have and the trouble i have listening to a 5 minute talk without my mind wandering off;  I managed to hold my concentration well to listen to the whole book.

For starters, the book is not exclusively about the investments of Warren Buffett, its just a part of that.  The book is all about Buffett, the man, his family, friends, investors, rivals (if any), his fears, his interests, his integrity, his failings, his winnings.

If you are someone who idolises Warren Buffett, then stay away from this book.  It does present him in a not-so flattering way.  There are constant references to how Buffett shies away from confrontation with people, his little quirks, his almost complete dedication to his work that he almost ignores his wife who loves him unconditionally.  The ignorance leads to separation of Buffett and his wife (but they never divorce).

Its said that when the book released and Warren realised the not too flattering account of him in the book, he distanced himself from the author of this book, Alice Schroeder.

The book starts with a detailed background description of Warren’s parents, Warren’s growing up days. His almost obsessive pursuance of money from a young age.  At a age when youngsters of his age are busy playing, Warren distributes papers, chewing gums, pepsi, works as a caddy etc to earn his pocket money, file income taxes for the first time at the age of 14.  Warren’s interaction and working with his guru, Benjamin Graham is also mentioned in the book and also Graham’s influence on Buffett.

At the age of 11, he buys 3 shares of Cities Service Preferred for himself, and 3 for his sister Doris.  He sells the shares at a small profit and then looks on as the stock price goes up 10 times.  That’s when he learns his first lesson. And that is “If you really believe in the company, then the holding period for the stock is almost forever”

His investments in Coca cola, Geico Insurance, General Re, Borsehims Jewelry, Net Jets, Star Furniture etc is legendary. Not to mention the down to earth and modest nature of the man who stil stays in the same house he bought in 1957 for about $31,500.

Inspite of being the world’s richest person he doesnt indulge in the usual rich people’s intersts like yachts, jewellery, mansions, ranches etc.

For someone who was known as being tight fisted when it came to donating money to his own children, he decided to donate a significant amount of his assets to The Bill & Melinda Gates foundation.  The following saying by him highlights his thoughts about wealth

I don’t have a problem with guilt about money. The way I see it is that my money represents an enormous number of claim checks on society. It’s like I have these little pieces of paper that I can turn into consumption. If I wanted to, I could hire 10,000 people to do nothing but paint my picture every day for the rest of my life. And the GDP would go up. But the utility of the product would be zilch, and I would be keeping those 10,000 people from doing AIDS research, or teaching, or nursing. I don’t do that though. I don’t use very many of those claim checks. There’s nothing material I want very much. And I’m going to give virtually all of those claim checks to charity when my wife and I die.

Some more quotes by the man which i have found interesting over the years i have read about him.

• It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you’ll do things differently

• Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked

• You only have to do a very few things right in your life so long as you don’t do too many things wrong

• I always knew I was going to be rich. I don’t think I ever doubted it for a minute.

• I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.

• I buy expensive suits. They just look cheap on me.

• If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.

• Of the billionaires I have known, money just brings out the basic traits in them. If they were jerks before they had money, they are simply jerks with a billion dollars.

• Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.

• Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.

and my most favourite one….

• Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.

The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life
Author – Alice Schroeder
Pages – 832
Publisher – Bantam

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More than 2 years later, we are staring at a similar situation.  The markets are hovering close to 20500.  The Public Sector Unit, Coal India is set to come with its mega 15,000 crore IPO.  The markets are at their all time highs. The pundits have been predicting a cooling down for some time now.

Will we see a correction again post the Coal India IPO launch?  Am watching from the sidelines to pick up some good bargain.

Above images courtesy: Topnews

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Philip Arthur Fisher was an American stock investor who wrote this book Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits way back in 1958.  Just like Benjamin Graham’s bible of investing, The Intelligent Investor, this book is also considered to be a must read for anyone planning to invest in the stock markets.

Philip Fisher is considered a pioneer in the field of growth investing. Morningstar has called him “one of the great investors of all time”. In Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, Fisher said that the best time to sell a stock was “almost never”. His most famous investment was his purchase of Motorola, a company he bought in 1955 when it was a radio manufacturer and held until his death in 2004.

Perhaps the best-known of Fisher’s followers is Warren Buffett who has said on some occasions that “he is 85% Graham and 15% Fisher”.  (source: Wikipedia)

Fisher goes on to give a lot of Do’s and Don’ts for investors.  A few of the Do’nts include

• Dont buy into promotional companies

• Dont ignore a good stock just because its traded over the counter

• Dont buy a stock just because you like the tone of its annual report

• Dont overstress diversification

• Dont be afraid to buying on a war scare

• Dont fail to consider time as well as price in buying a true growth stock

• Dont follow the crowd

Fisher also goes about sharing his ideas of how he goes about finding a growth stock.  Fisher talks about using the Scuttlebutt method to investing.  This means that the relative points of strength and weakness of each company in an industry can be obtained from a representative cross-section of the opinions of those who in one way or another are concerned with any particular company.  Also he talks about talking to the vendors, customers etc to find the correct information needed for your investment in that particular company.

Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits
Author – Philip Arthur Fisher
Pages – 271
Publisher – John Wiley & Sons

Above picture courtesy: Nickgogerty

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Also bought more stocks of MIC Electronics & Graphite India

This year the dividend payout has been pretty good. Add to that bonus shares from both Dabur (1:1) and & TVS Motors (1:1)

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He’s the one who coined the word, “ten bagger” which means an investment that is worth ten times its original buying price.  Lynch goes on to give pointers on how to pick up the ten baggers, the kind of companies to avoid, how to design a portfolio, the silliest things people say about stocks.

This book is one of the best books to read before entering the market. If you are someone who would like to enter the stock markets and get into equity, mutual funds etc, this book is a must read.

Read more about Peter Lynch at his Wikipedia page here

A list of all the books that i have read till now and am currently reading are on the right side of this blog.  Though not a prolific reader, this year i have been reading quite a few books.  With still 4 months to go for the end of the year, i hope to have read at least 12 books this year; which would mean a book every month.  Hmmm….not bad

One Up On Wall Street: How To Use What You Already Know To Make Money In The Market
Author – Peter Lynch
Pages – 304
Publisher – Simon & Schuster

Above picture courtesy: Bfanderson

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