A load of crap from an idle brain

Finished reading this book almost a month ago, but due to paucity of time almost forgot to write about this book.

This book is a look into the next 100 years by George Friedman (no relation to Thomas Friedman of the New York Times).  George Friedman is the chief executive of STRATFOR, a private global intelligence firm he founded in 1996. He has spent more than 20 years teaching political science and has commented extensively on security and defense issues.

Though its difficult to accurately predict what can happen next year, Friedman lets his thoughts into the next 100 years based on the situations and issues that have shaped the past 100-200 years.  Based on this he comes to the conclusion that in the next 100 years, the major powers of the world would be (hold your breath) USA, Japan, Poland and Turkey.

He goes on to describe that by the end of the current decade (2020), China would have disintegrated and Tibet liberated with active participation by India and China will either go back to its closed doors policy or become a non-entity.  Yes, China has to keep up its blistering growth or else there could be serious trouble among its population which has no other outlet to express its disenchantment against the communist government.  But to think that the communist government hasnt thought about it and doesnt have a plan B is difficult to imagine.

The author asserts that the United States power is so extraordinarily overwhelming that it will dominate the coming century, brushing aside Islamic terrorist threats now, overcoming a resurgent Russia in the 2010s and 20s and eventually gaining influence over space-based missile systems that Friedman names battle stars. Friedman is the founder of Stratfor, an independent geopolitical forecasting company, and his authoritative-sounding predictions are based on such factors as natural resources and population cycles. While these concrete measures lend his short-term forecasts credence, the later years of Friedmans 100-year cycle will provoke some serious eyebrow raising. The armed border clashes between Mexico and the United States in the 2080s seem relatively plausible, but the space war pitting Japan and Turkey against the United States and allies, prognosticated to begin precisely on Thanksgiving Day 2050, reads as fantastic (and terrifying) science fiction. Whether all of the visions in Friedmans crystal ball actually materialize, they certainly make for engrossing entertainment.

source: Amazon

There are a lot of issues on which i dont agree with the author of the book.  Other than a few instances, Friedman makes no mention of India in the whole book.  He says that India would be a regional power with no impact on the global affairs.  I cant understand how he manages to just discard a country that could have 1.5 billion people by 2050, the world’s top 5 standing army, one of the best airforce and naval power, not to mention an economy of at least $ 20 trillion by 2050 (conservative estimates).

I tried making a small comparison chart of the countries that are supposed to be significant players (according to Friedman) in the next 100 years versus India.  A cursory glance at the figures and its easy to see why the book is way off on its prediction.

* Data belongs to year 2009
** All figures are in US dollars
*** GDP & per capita is PPP
**** Data sourced from CIA website

But he goes on and on about Turkey and Poland being significant leaders in Europe who will militarily crush the rest of Europe.  There is hardly any mention of France or Britain.  Germany according to Friedman would be on the decline.  Agreed on that, but to dismiss the German power with regards to Turkey and Poland is simply too far fetched.

He also speaks a lot about Mexico which could be the top 10 economies by 2050, but no mention of India which could be the top 3 economy by 2050.  The author looks too enamoured by USA and believes that they will maintain status quo into the next 100 odd years.  Of course, no one believes that US will just lie down and die, but to imagine that the disastrous economic policies pursued by USA would have no impact into the future is a bit too far fetched to believe.  As for Japan, its negative population growth combined with its insignificant economic growth for the past 20 odd years have dented its abilities both on the economic as well as military front.  As a country that doesnt encourage any form of immigration, Japan will be in deep trouble as it has to cope with a rapidly graying population.  If it opens its doors to immigration, its will have to face a lot of social tensions.

The book is a good read, if you are into fantasies and would love to have a good laugh.  Surely not a book to be taken seriously.

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
Author – George Friedman
Pages – 272
Publisher – Doubleday

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All 7 satellites launched in their precise orbits by ISRO’s old workhorse, the PSLV in its 16th launch is indeed praiseworthy.  The successor to the Oceansat-1,  is supposed to be the country’s second ocean studies satellite that aims to aid fishermen in identifying fishing zones and weathermen to forecast cyclones by measuring sea surface winds.

Along with the Oceansat-2, 6 nano satellites (4 CUBESATS and 2 RUBIN) were also launched.

CUBESATs : The four CUBESATs are educational satellites from European universities, each weighing around one kg. and developed to perform technology demonstration in space. The satellites are launched inside a Single Picosatellite Launcher (SPL) also weighing one kg., which is a dedicated European launch adaptor to deploy a CubeSat.

CUBESAT-1: UWE-2, from the Universität Würzburg, Germany
UWE-2 is a pico satellite, with the mission objective of demonstration of a newly developed Attitude Determination and Control system (ADCS) and the technology demonstration of a GPS on a Cubesat.

CUBESAT-2: BeeSat, from the Technische Universität Berlin, Germany
BeeSat is a pico satellite project of the Technical University of Berlin with the main objective of on-orbit verification of newly developed micro reaction wheels for pico satellite applications and will demonstrate the use of coin sized micro reaction wheels for attitude control of pico satellites in orbit as one of the key elements

CUBESAT-3: ITU-pSAT1, from Istanbul Technical University, Turkey
The primary mission of the satellite is to examine the performance of an on-board passive stability system consisting of a magnet which will align the satellite to the magnetic field of the Earth with an error of about 15 degrees according to simulations, and to verify this figure. A secondary objective is to download photographs taken using a camera with a resolution of 640 x 480 pixels

CUBESAT-4: SwissCube, from Ecole Polytechnique Fédéral de Lausanne, Switzerland
The SwissCube mission objective is to house a science payload and take optical measurements and characterize the airglow intensity over selected latitudes and longitudes thereby demonstrating that the airglow emissions are strong enough to be measured by an off-the-shelf detector and validating the concept for the development of a low-cost Earth sensor.

RUBIN-9
RUBIN-9 consists of two Spacecrafts Rubin-9.1 and Rubin-9.2 weighing 8kg each and will primarily be used for the Automatic Identification System (AIS) for Maritime applications. These are non-separable payloads that will be mounted at an angle of 45deg to the PSLV EB deck.

Rubin-9.1 is developed by Luxspace and has a mission objective of providing an insight into the issue of message collisions that limit detection in areas of dense shipping.

The main purpose of the Rubin-9.2 spacecraft is to test and qualify nano technologies from Angstrom company Sweden and to continue space based maritime Automatic Identification System (AIS) receiver experiments (started with Rubin-7 and Rubin-8 missions). Rubin-9.2 is similar to the Rubin-8 launched on PSLV-C9 in April 2008.

More information on the launch here

All information & pictures source: ISRO

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The world’s favorite jeweller opens the world’s biggest jewellery showroom in Chennai, India. With over 70,000 sq. ft of premium jewellery shopping in the heart of Chennai, Joyalukkas jewellery offers consumers more than a million exquisite jewellery designs from master jewellers in India, Bahrain, Turkey, Singapore and Italy.

With the opening of the first showroom in the Gulf in 1987, the Group has achieved enormous growth, with over fifty stores in the GCC alone, plus London and New York. By 2009, the Group aims to open over 100 showrooms in India and the GCC. The world’s largest showroom in Chennai is an evidence of the growth of the Joyalukkas Group, and has been made possible by the vision of Mr. Joy Alukkas, Chairman, Joyalukkas Group.

Joyalukkas is a household name among the expatriate population in the GCC, including those from India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Philippines and other Asian countries, apart from a large number of international shoppers, the legendary quality of Joyalukkas products have helped the Group to expand into a number of industries that have been enthusiastically received by its loyal customers. The Group now has operations in areas of fashion, information technology, media, money exchange and gold trading.

With an entire floor of the store dedicated to diamond and platinum jewellery customers will be able to chose from a plethora of diamond and platinum jewellery designs in the form of necklaces, rings, ear rings ,bracelets and more. Joyalukkas only offers 100% IGI certified flawless Belgian cut diamonds, and a 100% PGI certified, Platinum jewellery, which ensures that only the highest quality of materials are used to create masterpieces which is a term synonymous with the Joyalukkas brand. All the gold jewellery available within the store is a 100% BIS certified and customers who purchase any gold and diamond jewellery are assured a 100% lifetime money back guarantee.

Full article here

Joy Alukkas website

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