A load of crap from an idle brain

Wishing the best of the year of the dragon to all.  Hope this year doesn’t turn out to be the disaster as all have been predicting.

Above picture courtesy: Panasianartsalliance

+++

Took a week off from work to rest, relax and recharge my batteries.  We are already into the 8th month of the year and i had yet to take a single leave this year.  Not to mention haven’t fallen sick for more than 18 odd months and (touch wood), would like that to remain that way for a long long time to come.  It means that i hadn’t been taking any break from work.

Work has been too tough and nerve wracking ever since i moved into the new department more than 5 months ago (ya, time flies), not to mention colleagues who are of no use to the team but somehow manage to survive at work inspite of doing nothing productive. Ya, life is a big bunch of surprises.  The ones who work are questioned when there is a lapse on their end, but some people just laze around at work and unashamedly take the salary at the end of the month and no one even bats an eyelid.

Anyways, over a period of time have steeled myself to ignore such characters and sideline them.  There are others who are enthusiastic about work and they are the ones who really encourage me to look forward to going back to work daily.

But this week off was a much needed one.  Have been doing nothing but having good home cooked food, having my regular post lunch naps, wandering aimlessly around the city, reading books on the couch and most importantly watching the financial markets melt the world over.  Watching this self inflicted wound by the US not only to itself but criminally exporting its problems to the worldwide economies is simply mind boggling to watch.  Not to mention morons like Alan Greenspan openly bragging that this debt ceiling is of no issue to the US as they can print as much dollars they want.  Now beat that.

The funniest part of the whole debt problem is the reaction from China which blasted the US for its uninhibited funding of its consumerism by debt.  But why is China so worried about the debt downgrade of the US from AAA to AA+ by S&P ?  Its because China holds more than a trillion dollars worth of US debt.  The more irony comes from the fact that just a few months ago, some so-called Chinese thinkers were threatening to dump dollars that China is holding in the form of its foreign reserves to show who the boss is.  Which makes one wonder, if China dumps the dollar, which moron in the world wants to buy it?  And if it dumps the dollar and the value of the dollar takes a nosedive further eroding the value of the reserves its holding, who is China threatening in the first place?  Its like cutting the nose to spite the face.  The whole fracas reminds me of the saying that i had posted sometime earlier in this blog….

“If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.” – J Paul Getty

China today finds itself between the devil and the deep sea.  On one hand it needs to keep the yuan weaker by buying up all the dollars else the export oriented economy that China has carefully built up over the decades will collapse.  With thousands of riots happening countrywide, the Communist government doesn’t want another disaster on its hands.

And its not easy to make a complete turnaround of the economy from an exporting one to a local consumer led economy.  The transition takes years to happen. So, it keeps buying up dollars to keep its own currency cheaper and with the US dollar collapsing to newer lows, everyone is at their wits end trying to hold things together.

So, what to do now?  Nothing much..if you have money sit tight or start buying into blue chips in small tranches.  For the ones who sold off their equity holdings a few months earlier, i have nothing but admiration for your foresight.  For those who plan to sell during the collapse now, there is nothing more foolish decision than that.

Gold is scaling new heights daily as the US dollar loses its value.  Its gonna be a turbulent few months ahead.  Sit tight, there is much more trouble ahead.  Like the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett once said…

“Its only when the tide goes out that you learn who has been swimming naked”

Pictures courtesy: Now Public, Guardian, wmpoweruser

+++

The chickens have finally come home to roost.  After decades of national policy of fomenting terrorism in the neighborhood, the snake fed and protected by successive Pakistani governments, Army and their masters, the rogue intelligence agency, ISI have finally started to bite them.

The terrorists born and bred under the patronage of the Pakistani military which was pursued as a strategic interest has now attacked the PNS Mehran naval base and destroyed 2 P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft (bought from the US as strategic interest against India).  Ironical how one strategic interest is conflicting with the other.

After being kicked in the butt by the US who unilaterally took action to kill Bin Laden in Abbotabad, now Pakistan has run to its other “all-weather” friend China.  What is funny is how Pakistan has no qualms prostrating itself in front of anyone who can give it alms.  There is no shame or determination to take the country on the path of economic development or spine demonstrated by successive governments.

The begging is what takes the cake.  After leeching off almost $15 billion from a naive American government post 9/11 in the guise of “war on terror”, they have run to their other friend, China who has over the decades not even given $500 million in aid.   In an effort to pitch one superpower against the other, Pakistan is now trying to threaten US that if it doesnt stop the attacks on its soil, it will run into the willing arms of its rival, China.

Pakistan is like the country who keeps a gun to its own head and threatens everyone else.  Its high time the US government calls its bluff and cuts off all aid.  Then see how long Pakistan can sustain itself.  You will soon see the Pakistanis grovelling on all fours and coming back apologising.

One is confused if one should sympathise with the thousands of innocents being killed in Pakistan by suicide bombers and other terrorist acts.  The Indian government’s constant harping that a peaceful and stable Pakistan is in our own interest is nothing but hogwash.  A stable and peaceful Pakistan is nothing but a bigger headache for India than one that is broken up into a few pieces and let all the pieces either live in peace of fight amongst themselves.

The earlier the Indian government realises the folly of engaging the Pakistani government or its masters (their Army & ISI), the better it is for them.  I rather the Indian government put their energies in building better relations with Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar & Sri Lanka.

For starters, how about throwing open our economy to the above mentioned 5 countries for free trade.  Its time we stopped behaving like a big brother in the neighborhood and display our large heartedness to these countries who are more worthy of our time, money and friendship.

Above pictures courtesy: NDTV

+++

Finished the one week ISMS course and on the last day had an exam too. Wrote well.  Hope to pass. Came back to work after a week to a mountain of emails and things to catch up on. Wish i could take a few days off and relax at home, but with so many things happenign at work simultaneously, i kept that thought on the backburner for now.

The new team, work is exciting.  Lots to learn and so less time.  Things move very fast here unlike at my previous position.  Hardly have time to procastinate, which only leads to things getting escalated to the other people in the team.  Its been fun, but ya tiring at the same time too.

Blogging has taken a back seat as of now.  So much to write, but i find so little time.  Also realise that i havent checked my equity portfolio properly in a week.  The sad events in Japan have really shook up the markets not to speak of the Japanese people.  But am sure their resilience will come to the fore and Japan will once again rise from the ashes as it has always done.

Maybe the Japanese govt will finally open its door to the immigrants who will now be very much needed for the reconstruction work.  Nuclear plans will be on hold all over the world.  That would mean more reliance on fossil fuels.  Oil prices are sure to shoot up.  The previous record of $147 per barrel could be broken.

People (both pro and anti nuclear) will play out their agendas.  But lets keep it in mind that nuclear power for all that has happened in Chernobyl, Japan and the Three Mile island incident is still the cleanest way for us to produce electricity.  Lets face it, the other methods like wind or solar are no patch to the quantity and quality of electricity that can be produced through nuclear power.  Ya, its risky and a lot of checks and safeguards need to be in place.  Proper mechanism for disposing off the spent fuel rods must also be in place.

The commies and the jholawalas are sure to raise muck about the numerous nuclear power plants that are coming up around the country.  The chaddis as usual will try to fish in murky waters.  But let the rhetoric not make us take our eyes away from the goal.  That is clean power which is an absolute must if India is to grow above 9% per year.

Countries like France generate almost 75% of their electricity from nuclear power.  Japan also generates almost 30%.  Its easy to take the path of using dirty fuels (fossil fuels) to achieve our economic growth and end up with disastrous consequences as China’s environment has faced.

So lets take a step back, clear our mind of all the rhetoric and take a call.  What lies ahead is nothing but our future.  Let’s learn it from the experts who have done it and done it well.

Meanwhile my deepest condolences to the thousands of Japanese killed and the millions whose lives have been affected by this triple whammy of earthquake, tsunami and the nuclear accident.

+++

Finished reading this book almost a month ago, but due to paucity of time almost forgot to write about this book.

This book is a look into the next 100 years by George Friedman (no relation to Thomas Friedman of the New York Times).  George Friedman is the chief executive of STRATFOR, a private global intelligence firm he founded in 1996. He has spent more than 20 years teaching political science and has commented extensively on security and defense issues.

Though its difficult to accurately predict what can happen next year, Friedman lets his thoughts into the next 100 years based on the situations and issues that have shaped the past 100-200 years.  Based on this he comes to the conclusion that in the next 100 years, the major powers of the world would be (hold your breath) USA, Japan, Poland and Turkey.

He goes on to describe that by the end of the current decade (2020), China would have disintegrated and Tibet liberated with active participation by India and China will either go back to its closed doors policy or become a non-entity.  Yes, China has to keep up its blistering growth or else there could be serious trouble among its population which has no other outlet to express its disenchantment against the communist government.  But to think that the communist government hasnt thought about it and doesnt have a plan B is difficult to imagine.

The author asserts that the United States power is so extraordinarily overwhelming that it will dominate the coming century, brushing aside Islamic terrorist threats now, overcoming a resurgent Russia in the 2010s and 20s and eventually gaining influence over space-based missile systems that Friedman names battle stars. Friedman is the founder of Stratfor, an independent geopolitical forecasting company, and his authoritative-sounding predictions are based on such factors as natural resources and population cycles. While these concrete measures lend his short-term forecasts credence, the later years of Friedmans 100-year cycle will provoke some serious eyebrow raising. The armed border clashes between Mexico and the United States in the 2080s seem relatively plausible, but the space war pitting Japan and Turkey against the United States and allies, prognosticated to begin precisely on Thanksgiving Day 2050, reads as fantastic (and terrifying) science fiction. Whether all of the visions in Friedmans crystal ball actually materialize, they certainly make for engrossing entertainment.

source: Amazon

There are a lot of issues on which i dont agree with the author of the book.  Other than a few instances, Friedman makes no mention of India in the whole book.  He says that India would be a regional power with no impact on the global affairs.  I cant understand how he manages to just discard a country that could have 1.5 billion people by 2050, the world’s top 5 standing army, one of the best airforce and naval power, not to mention an economy of at least $ 20 trillion by 2050 (conservative estimates).

I tried making a small comparison chart of the countries that are supposed to be significant players (according to Friedman) in the next 100 years versus India.  A cursory glance at the figures and its easy to see why the book is way off on its prediction.

* Data belongs to year 2009
** All figures are in US dollars
*** GDP & per capita is PPP
**** Data sourced from CIA website

But he goes on and on about Turkey and Poland being significant leaders in Europe who will militarily crush the rest of Europe.  There is hardly any mention of France or Britain.  Germany according to Friedman would be on the decline.  Agreed on that, but to dismiss the German power with regards to Turkey and Poland is simply too far fetched.

He also speaks a lot about Mexico which could be the top 10 economies by 2050, but no mention of India which could be the top 3 economy by 2050.  The author looks too enamoured by USA and believes that they will maintain status quo into the next 100 odd years.  Of course, no one believes that US will just lie down and die, but to imagine that the disastrous economic policies pursued by USA would have no impact into the future is a bit too far fetched to believe.  As for Japan, its negative population growth combined with its insignificant economic growth for the past 20 odd years have dented its abilities both on the economic as well as military front.  As a country that doesnt encourage any form of immigration, Japan will be in deep trouble as it has to cope with a rapidly graying population.  If it opens its doors to immigration, its will have to face a lot of social tensions.

The book is a good read, if you are into fantasies and would love to have a good laugh.  Surely not a book to be taken seriously.

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
Author – George Friedman
Pages – 272
Publisher – Doubleday

+++