Above picture courtesy: Panasianartsalliance

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Work has been too tough and nerve wracking ever since i moved into the new department more than 5 months ago (ya, time flies), not to mention colleagues who are of no use to the team but somehow manage to survive at work inspite of doing nothing productive. Ya, life is a big bunch of surprises.  The ones who work are questioned when there is a lapse on their end, but some people just laze around at work and unashamedly take the salary at the end of the month and no one even bats an eyelid.

Anyways, over a period of time have steeled myself to ignore such characters and sideline them.  There are others who are enthusiastic about work and they are the ones who really encourage me to look forward to going back to work daily.

But this week off was a much needed one.  Have been doing nothing but having good home cooked food, having my regular post lunch naps, wandering aimlessly around the city, reading books on the couch and most importantly watching the financial markets melt the world over.  Watching this self inflicted wound by the US not only to itself but criminally exporting its problems to the worldwide economies is simply mind boggling to watch.  Not to mention morons like Alan Greenspan openly bragging that this debt ceiling is of no issue to the US as they can print as much dollars they want.  Now beat that.

The funniest part of the whole debt problem is the reaction from China which blasted the US for its uninhibited funding of its consumerism by debt.  But why is China so worried about the debt downgrade of the US from AAA to AA+ by S&P ?  Its because China holds more than a trillion dollars worth of US debt.  The more irony comes from the fact that just a few months ago, some so-called Chinese thinkers were threatening to dump dollars that China is holding in the form of its foreign reserves to show who the boss is.  Which makes one wonder, if China dumps the dollar, which moron in the world wants to buy it?  And if it dumps the dollar and the value of the dollar takes a nosedive further eroding the value of the reserves its holding, who is China threatening in the first place?  Its like cutting the nose to spite the face.  The whole fracas reminds me of the saying that i had posted sometime earlier in this blog….

“If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.” – J Paul Getty

China today finds itself between the devil and the deep sea.  On one hand it needs to keep the yuan weaker by buying up all the dollars else the export oriented economy that China has carefully built up over the decades will collapse.  With thousands of riots happening countrywide, the Communist government doesn’t want another disaster on its hands.

And its not easy to make a complete turnaround of the economy from an exporting one to a local consumer led economy.  The transition takes years to happen. So, it keeps buying up dollars to keep its own currency cheaper and with the US dollar collapsing to newer lows, everyone is at their wits end trying to hold things together.

So, what to do now?  Nothing much..if you have money sit tight or start buying into blue chips in small tranches.  For the ones who sold off their equity holdings a few months earlier, i have nothing but admiration for your foresight.  For those who plan to sell during the collapse now, there is nothing more foolish decision than that.

Gold is scaling new heights daily as the US dollar loses its value.  Its gonna be a turbulent few months ahead.  Sit tight, there is much more trouble ahead.  Like the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett once said…

“Its only when the tide goes out that you learn who has been swimming naked”

Pictures courtesy: Now Public, Guardian, wmpoweruser

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The terrorists born and bred under the patronage of the Pakistani military which was pursued as a strategic interest has now attacked the PNS Mehran naval base and destroyed 2 P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft (bought from the US as strategic interest against India).  Ironical how one strategic interest is conflicting with the other.

After being kicked in the butt by the US who unilaterally took action to kill Bin Laden in Abbotabad, now Pakistan has run to its other “all-weather” friend China.  What is funny is how Pakistan has no qualms prostrating itself in front of anyone who can give it alms.  There is no shame or determination to take the country on the path of economic development or spine demonstrated by successive governments.

The begging is what takes the cake.  After leeching off almost $15 billion from a naive American government post 9/11 in the guise of “war on terror”, they have run to their other friend, China who has over the decades not even given $500 million in aid.   In an effort to pitch one superpower against the other, Pakistan is now trying to threaten US that if it doesnt stop the attacks on its soil, it will run into the willing arms of its rival, China.

Pakistan is like the country who keeps a gun to its own head and threatens everyone else.  Its high time the US government calls its bluff and cuts off all aid.  Then see how long Pakistan can sustain itself.  You will soon see the Pakistanis grovelling on all fours and coming back apologising.

One is confused if one should sympathise with the thousands of innocents being killed in Pakistan by suicide bombers and other terrorist acts.  The Indian government’s constant harping that a peaceful and stable Pakistan is in our own interest is nothing but hogwash.  A stable and peaceful Pakistan is nothing but a bigger headache for India than one that is broken up into a few pieces and let all the pieces either live in peace of fight amongst themselves.

The earlier the Indian government realises the folly of engaging the Pakistani government or its masters (their Army & ISI), the better it is for them.  I rather the Indian government put their energies in building better relations with Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar & Sri Lanka.

For starters, how about throwing open our economy to the above mentioned 5 countries for free trade.  Its time we stopped behaving like a big brother in the neighborhood and display our large heartedness to these countries who are more worthy of our time, money and friendship.

Above pictures courtesy: NDTV

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The new team, work is exciting.  Lots to learn and so less time.  Things move very fast here unlike at my previous position.  Hardly have time to procastinate, which only leads to things getting escalated to the other people in the team.  Its been fun, but ya tiring at the same time too.

Blogging has taken a back seat as of now.  So much to write, but i find so little time.  Also realise that i havent checked my equity portfolio properly in a week.  The sad events in Japan have really shook up the markets not to speak of the Japanese people.  But am sure their resilience will come to the fore and Japan will once again rise from the ashes as it has always done.

Maybe the Japanese govt will finally open its door to the immigrants who will now be very much needed for the reconstruction work.  Nuclear plans will be on hold all over the world.  That would mean more reliance on fossil fuels.  Oil prices are sure to shoot up.  The previous record of $147 per barrel could be broken.

People (both pro and anti nuclear) will play out their agendas.  But lets keep it in mind that nuclear power for all that has happened in Chernobyl, Japan and the Three Mile island incident is still the cleanest way for us to produce electricity.  Lets face it, the other methods like wind or solar are no patch to the quantity and quality of electricity that can be produced through nuclear power.  Ya, its risky and a lot of checks and safeguards need to be in place.  Proper mechanism for disposing off the spent fuel rods must also be in place.

The commies and the jholawalas are sure to raise muck about the numerous nuclear power plants that are coming up around the country.  The chaddis as usual will try to fish in murky waters.  But let the rhetoric not make us take our eyes away from the goal.  That is clean power which is an absolute must if India is to grow above 9% per year.

Countries like France generate almost 75% of their electricity from nuclear power.  Japan also generates almost 30%.  Its easy to take the path of using dirty fuels (fossil fuels) to achieve our economic growth and end up with disastrous consequences as China’s environment has faced.

So lets take a step back, clear our mind of all the rhetoric and take a call.  What lies ahead is nothing but our future.  Let’s learn it from the experts who have done it and done it well.

Meanwhile my deepest condolences to the thousands of Japanese killed and the millions whose lives have been affected by this triple whammy of earthquake, tsunami and the nuclear accident.

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This book is a look into the next 100 years by George Friedman (no relation to Thomas Friedman of the New York Times).  George Friedman is the chief executive of STRATFOR, a private global intelligence firm he founded in 1996. He has spent more than 20 years teaching political science and has commented extensively on security and defense issues.

Though its difficult to accurately predict what can happen next year, Friedman lets his thoughts into the next 100 years based on the situations and issues that have shaped the past 100-200 years.  Based on this he comes to the conclusion that in the next 100 years, the major powers of the world would be (hold your breath) USA, Japan, Poland and Turkey.

He goes on to describe that by the end of the current decade (2020), China would have disintegrated and Tibet liberated with active participation by India and China will either go back to its closed doors policy or become a non-entity.  Yes, China has to keep up its blistering growth or else there could be serious trouble among its population which has no other outlet to express its disenchantment against the communist government.  But to think that the communist government hasnt thought about it and doesnt have a plan B is difficult to imagine.

The author asserts that the United States power is so extraordinarily overwhelming that it will dominate the coming century, brushing aside Islamic terrorist threats now, overcoming a resurgent Russia in the 2010s and 20s and eventually gaining influence over space-based missile systems that Friedman names battle stars. Friedman is the founder of Stratfor, an independent geopolitical forecasting company, and his authoritative-sounding predictions are based on such factors as natural resources and population cycles. While these concrete measures lend his short-term forecasts credence, the later years of Friedmans 100-year cycle will provoke some serious eyebrow raising. The armed border clashes between Mexico and the United States in the 2080s seem relatively plausible, but the space war pitting Japan and Turkey against the United States and allies, prognosticated to begin precisely on Thanksgiving Day 2050, reads as fantastic (and terrifying) science fiction. Whether all of the visions in Friedmans crystal ball actually materialize, they certainly make for engrossing entertainment.

source: Amazon

There are a lot of issues on which i dont agree with the author of the book.  Other than a few instances, Friedman makes no mention of India in the whole book.  He says that India would be a regional power with no impact on the global affairs.  I cant understand how he manages to just discard a country that could have 1.5 billion people by 2050, the world’s top 5 standing army, one of the best airforce and naval power, not to mention an economy of at least $ 20 trillion by 2050 (conservative estimates).

I tried making a small comparison chart of the countries that are supposed to be significant players (according to Friedman) in the next 100 years versus India.  A cursory glance at the figures and its easy to see why the book is way off on its prediction.

* Data belongs to year 2009
** All figures are in US dollars
*** GDP & per capita is PPP
**** Data sourced from CIA website

But he goes on and on about Turkey and Poland being significant leaders in Europe who will militarily crush the rest of Europe.  There is hardly any mention of France or Britain.  Germany according to Friedman would be on the decline.  Agreed on that, but to dismiss the German power with regards to Turkey and Poland is simply too far fetched.

He also speaks a lot about Mexico which could be the top 10 economies by 2050, but no mention of India which could be the top 3 economy by 2050.  The author looks too enamoured by USA and believes that they will maintain status quo into the next 100 odd years.  Of course, no one believes that US will just lie down and die, but to imagine that the disastrous economic policies pursued by USA would have no impact into the future is a bit too far fetched to believe.  As for Japan, its negative population growth combined with its insignificant economic growth for the past 20 odd years have dented its abilities both on the economic as well as military front.  As a country that doesnt encourage any form of immigration, Japan will be in deep trouble as it has to cope with a rapidly graying population.  If it opens its doors to immigration, its will have to face a lot of social tensions.

The book is a good read, if you are into fantasies and would love to have a good laugh.  Surely not a book to be taken seriously.

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
Author – George Friedman
Pages – 272
Publisher – Doubleday

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India’s Saina Nehwal won the Hong Kong Open Super Series badminton tournament beating China’s Shixian Wang 2-1 in the women’s singles final here Sunday.

Second seeded Saina won 15-21 21-16 21-17 against third seeded Wang, an Asian Games gold medallist, in a match that lasted one hour and 11 minutes at the Queen Elizabeth Stadium.

For Saina the win was her fifth title of the year, which includes three Super Series and Commonwealth Games gold.

The Hong Kong Open was the fourth Super Series title for Saina, who won her first Super Series at the Indonesian Open last year and retained it this year.

Earlier on Saturday, overcoming mid-match blues, Saina Nehwal waltzed into the final of the Hong Kong Super Series with a 21-19, 17-21, 21-12 victory over Juliane Schenk of Germany in the keenly-contested semifinal at the Queen Elizabeth Stadium.

Above news courtesy:  TOI

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Matt, whose blog is  http://ma.tt (can you have a web address cooler than that?) founded the company Automattic which came out with products like Gravatar, Akismet (the spam catching software), WordPress etc.  Visit Matt’s website for more information about technology and to read about himself and his interests in photography.

Managed to find all the previous codes of the Marriage ticker, World Community Grid etc. Also feel that the Equity portfolio and Books Read widgets look much better on this theme than the previous ones.  Not only that, the comments section on all the other pages of this blog which mysteriously went missing in the previous themes have re-appeared with this theme

The 16th Asian Games are to begin today at Guangzhou in China.  Unlike all the mess associated with the Commonwealth Games in New Delhi in October, the Chinese got all the infrastructure ready (along with the stadiums) months in advance.  Now, that is what is called an awesome planning and execution.  Am sure the Chinese would put up an even better display than the mind blowing performance they put up during the Olympics in Beijing in 2008. The opening and closing ceremony would be something to watch out for.

The opening ceremony would be at 2000 hrs Singapore time (+8 hrs GMT).  Expecting the Indian team to repeat the performance of the Commonwealth Games would be simply too much.  Even though the Aussies, English and Canadian teams were around in the Commonwealth Games, the Chinese, Japanese and Koreans are different cup of tea.

China ended with 166 golds in the previous Asian Games at Doha.  They would be certainly gunning for 200 in front of their home crowd.  Also the Chinese are fielding the biggest contingent ever, a younger team which will be put to test before the 2012 London Olympics where they are poised to top the medals tally again.

Also India take on New Zealand at Hyderabad, India for the 2nd test match.  Wish i was back home, and i would have gone to the stadium to see Sachin, Laxman, Dravid etc play for probably the last time in Hyderabad.  The Uppal stadium is just a few kilometers from my home and would have been fun with friends and family.

Anyways, here is wishing the best to both the Indian cricket team and the Indian contingent at the Asian Games.  India won 10 golds, 17 silver and 26 bronze at the Doha games.  Here’s wishing they improve the performance by at least 50% this time.

Asian Games Official Website – http://www.gz2010.cn/en

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Unwittingly of course, India had been resorting to its own plan of undoing this pearls by its Look East policy that it put in place a couple of decades ago.  Over these years, India has strengthend not only economic, but also military partnership with some key nations of South East & East Asia like Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand & Singapore.

Its no secret that China is one of the biggest trading partner of ASEAN as well as of Japan & South Korea.  But its also a fact that most of these countries are not comfortable with the flooding their domestic markets with Chinese goods.  Also China’s yuan manipulation keeps the prices of their goods cheaper and affects the local economies of countries like Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia etc.  And many of these countries are already protesting the same.

The increasing economic clout of China has also massaged its military ego and it now has a lot of territorial claims against countries like Japan, Vietnam and other South East Asian countries.

It is in this context that one can see how India’s Look East policy is reaping rich dividends.  Not only has it led to economic benefits, but also robust military exchanges between the countries and India.

In all these hoopla, what is not being missed is the increasing defence collaboration between the militaries of America and India.  During the cold war era, India was fully dependent on the Russians for arms supply.  with the collapse of the USSR, the spares dreid up and defence procurement dipped to a low for India. During the Kargil war, it was the Israelis who came to India’s aid with timely supplies of spares and the required ammunition.

Today Israel and the US are increasingly becoming the biggest arms suppliers to India. Over the last couple of years, India has purchased six C-130J Super Hercules aircraft for almost US$1 billion and eight Boeing P-8I planes for more than US$2 billion (2009) from the US.

Also US is in running to bag the massive $12 billion 126 advanced figher for which the testing is already underway.

Though it would do a world of good for India to have a coherent defence policy instead of buying piecemeal arms and ammunitions.  Not to mention try to have an indegenous arms production industry within the country.  Depending on the DRDO and its allied organisations is a suicidal step for the country.  Privatisation of the defence industry would go a long step in indigenisation of defence technology.   The Mahindras, L&T, Tatas are increasing their participation in defence technology and it would do a lot of good in future.

Some good reads on this topic

How India is undoing China’s string of pearls
Delhi’s obsequious Obamamania
India counters China’s “String of Pearls” through Naval Diplomacy

Above pictures courtesy: Tactical Life & Twenty22

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Defence ministry officials say the 1.13-million Army alone has planned 14 to 18 exercises with countries ranging from the US, UK and Russia to Bangladesh, Mongolia, Thailand and Tajiskistan, both at home and abroad.

For instance, the armies of Seychelles and Singapore will be in Belgaum and Deolali in January for joint combat exercises . Similar is the case with Navy and IAF. Indian warships will hold combat manoeuvres with French warships, including nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, during the “Varuna” wargames on the high seas in January . “Indian and French navies and air forces have build a high-level of interoperability through such exercises… We have a strategic partnership ,” said visiting French chief of defence staff Admiral Edouard Guillaud.

The US, of course, is leading the charge in this “interoperability” game, with Indian and American armed forces holding a staggering 60 or so wargames over the last decade.

Many more are in the offing. After the ‘Malabar’ naval wargames on the western coast, the “Habu Nag” amphibious exercise at Okinawa (Japan) and the “Vajra Prahar” counterterrorism drills at Belgaum earlier in the year, around 200 Indian soldiers are now leaving for Alaska to take part in the “Balance Iroquois” exercise with American special forces.

Despite defence minister A K Antony always being eager to downplay the expansive Indo-US defence relationship, the armed forces of the two nations have set a scorching pace in their bilateral engagement . Of the 64 exercises conducted by the Army between 2001 and 2009, well over one-third were with the US.

“The US is the only superpower around… We learn a lot from exercising with them. With the vast counter-insurgency experience of our professional forces, we also teach them a lot,” said a senior officer.

Above news source: TimesofIndia

Pictures courtesy: Military photos, Getty

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India is now the largest petroleum products exporter in Asia, surpassing South Korea. According to the data compiled by oil and metal information provider Platts, India’s gross exports currently average 1 million barrels a day, inching past South Korea which exports 0.9 million barrels a day.

With the commissioning of a new refinery by Reliance Industries at Jamnagar and Essar Oil increasing refinery output at Vadinar, India overtook South Korea by mid-2009 and has since then consistently maintained the lead position.

India’s average petroleum products export grew from 0.77 million barrels a day in January 2009 to one million barrels a day in August 2009. In the current year, the average oil products export from India stands at 1.07 million while South Korea exports average 0.88 million.

In fact, India’s refining capacity at 3.69 million barrels a day is the third largest in Asia after China and Japan, which have a refining capacity of 9.6 million bpd and 4.64 bpd respectively. Platts’ compilation is based on the data from individual countries.

“Both Reliance Industries’ Jamnagar and Essar’s Vadinar refineries contribute more than 90 per cent of the petroleum products exports while the rest is by public sector oil companies,” said Ms Vandana Hari, Asia Editorial Director, Platts.

Read the full article here

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