A load of crap from an idle brain

The jury has given its verdict: the rupee will retain its Indian character with an international flavour. The five-member panel has chosen IIT post-graduate D Udaya Kumar’s design from among five shortlisted symbols and recommended it for Cabinet approval.

Kumar’s symbol (on the left) is an amalgam of the Devanagari ‘Ra’ and the Roman capital ‘R’ without the stem, very much in line with what Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee had envisioned. “We intend to formalise a symbol for the Indian rupee which reflects and captures Indian ethos and culture,” Mukherjee said in his Budget speech this year.

The chosen symbol has the Finance Minister’s approval, said a Ministry official.

The Ministry had organised a symbol design competition with a prize money of Rs 2.5 lakh with the condition that it should be applicable to the standard keyboard, be in the national language script or a visual representation and should represent the historical and cultural ethos of the country.

Full news here

+++

Finally, i finished reading this book.  Have been reading it on and off for the past 6 odd months.  In the meanwhile have finished reading a few others too.  Odd, because the book is a very good read and written with lots of historical references.  For someone who loves to know the Roman, Greek, French, British and American history, this book is a treasure trove.

The authors of this book are Bill Bonner & Addison Wiggin who have been writing the free daily newsletter, The Daily Reckoning for more than 10 years now. The newsletter covers a lot about the daily economy, world politics, investment strategies, gold, stock market etc.  Bonner is also the founder and president of Agora Publishing.

The authors believe that the America of today has left the values of its founding fathers far behind and has become an imperial power instead of being a country.  Bonner also believes that the end of America is also coming soon.  The author talks about the dollar crisis, the coming end of the US economy. He writes about how successive US governments have gone to war and wasted all resources, the decoupling of the dollar to the gold standard, the federal reserve under Alan Greenspan with his inflationary policies totally wrecked the US economy.

Quoting from Amazon,

Bonner and Wiggin view ancient Rome as the classical model of empire. Running an empire was an expensive business; the folks in the homeland needed to be mollified with government handouts (bread and circuses), while a large military had to be maintained in the frontier. Rome used its military power to exact tribute from neighboring states; it was a protection racket, no different from the Mafia. Nevertheless, this scheme generally kept the central state solvent and the territories at peace. The United States is also an empire, Bonner and Wiggin maintain, but it does not follow the classical model. It placates its citizens with massive distributions of government largess while using its powerful military to exert influence and keep peace abroad. However, “[i]nstead of getting paid for providing protection, the United States is on the receiving end of loans from its tributary states and trading partners ” (p. 77). This is how the United States became the Empire of Debt.

Empire of Debt: The Rise of an Epic Financial Crisis
Authors – Bill Bonner & Addison Wiggin
Pages – 384
Publisher – Wiley

+++

The Indian economy roared past estimates to post a whopping growth rate of 8.6% in the January-March quarter of 2010. The quarter’s strong showing also helped India end the fiscal year with 7.4% growth, beating the earlier estimate of 7.2%. Manufacturing led the way, with a whopping 16.3% growth in the quarter and 10.8% overall, while even agriculture, which was expected to decline, ended with marginal growth of 0.2% year-on-year after growing 0.7% in Q4.

The GDP growth rate had slowed to 6.7% in 2008-09 following the global economic crisis, after topping 9% in the previous three years. On Monday, finance minister Pranab Mukherjee reiterated his confidence that the economy would grow at 8.5%-plus in 2010-11.

Finance secretary Ashok Chawla also pegged economic growth at 8.5% in 2010-11. “The growth numbers are pleasant but not really surprising, because we were expecting them to be robust which they turned out to be. This clearly indicates the momentum which is in the economy and the expectations that the 8.5% estimation for 2010-11 is going to be a clear possibility,” he said.

Full article here

Above picture courtesy: Moneymint

+++

The largest private bank, ICICI is set to become even bigger.  Though the price they are paying to buy out Bank of Rajasthan seems a bit too much.

Bank of Rajasthan, one of the oldest private sector banks in the country, on Tuesday announced that it would merge with the largest private sector bank, ICICI Bank.

The board of ICICI Bank, which met later in the day, also agreed to give in-principle approval for merger of Bank of Rajasthan with it “subject to due diligence and valuation by an independent valuer jointly appointed by both banks.”

“The board will consider the due diligence report and the valuation report at a subsequent meeting. The proposal if approved by the boards of ICICI Bank and Bank of Rajasthan would then be placed before the shareholders of both banks for approval and would be submitted to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for its consideration,” ICICI Bank stated after its board meeting here.

Full article here

+++

Almost a year ago, i wrote a post, End of the American dream? The bad news continues. With the Obama administration tightening the screws against the immigrants and the financial collapse of the American economy, it seems the jobs are drying up and so is the much needed funding for the education system.

“There is a drop both in the number and the quality of Ph.D. applications, more noticeably in the last two years.” says Anand Sivasubramaniam, professor of computer science and engineering, Pennsylvania State University (Penn State). “This year, of the more than 700 applications we received from prospective graduate students worldwide, the number of applications from top Indian institutes such as the IITs and IISc was in the single digit. Less than three years ago, this number was in the double digits,” he says. An article this February in The Chronicle of Higher Education reported a 50 percent decline in the number of new Indian graduate students this Autumn at the University of Georgia. The computer science department at California State University (Long Beach) saw a spate of prospective master’s students from India abandoning their application process midway.

“It’s the beginning of a trend, an indicator that something is happening and that Indian students are not coming here like they did in the past,” laments Dr. Nathan Bell, director of research at the Council.
You don’t have to look far to find the reasons for this. With the US economy in a shambles, there are severe budget cuts at state-funded universities. The prospects of obtaining a full waiver of tuition fees are slim. Dwindling grant money also means that local students stand a better chance of getting a research fellowship than foreign students. So, many Indian students end up working for free. Last semester, Atulya Prasad, a master’s and Ph.D. candidate in biomedical engineering at New York’s Stony Brook University, worked as a research assistant sans the stipend.

The situation doesn’t improve upon graduation. The growing political backlash against the loss of American jobs, and the rising anti-immigrant sentiment means that getting a work visa — let alone getting a job — is as tough as it can get. So much so that now, even the lure of a US-located son-in-law is starting to fade. “The classic America-educated son-in-law syndrome is almost nonexistent as students, especially from tier 2 schools, hardly get jobs in the US after they graduate,” says Satyavrata Samavedi, a Ph.D. candidate in tissue engineering at the Virginia Institute of Technology (Virginia Tech).

Full article here

Above picture courtesy: Associated Content

+++

The next 7 years (2010 – 2017) of infrastructure investments in India would see an investment of almost a trillion dollars (approx 50 lakh crore rupees). Lots of money to be made for all the corrupt fellas as well as for the ones who want to earn legally.

And the infrastructure push just for the next one year is $140 billion (approx 7 lakh crores). Once in the lifetime of the growth of a country you can see such an explosive growth.  If you can identify the correct companies and make investments, it will give you the kind of returns which you would have never imagined.

India is roaring towards an infrastructure boom and plenty of jobs will be created like never before as capital expenditure in the next financial year is expected to surge up to a whopping Rs 700,000 crore or about 10 per cent of the expected gross domestic product of about Rs 70,00,000 crore. Companies in auto, power, railways, irrigation, airports and ports sectors are on a major expansion spree and Indian banks and financial institutions are pooling in massive resources.

But this may not be enough and some bankers expect companies to access other financing avenues such as capital market and overseas borrowing. Yet others feel that financial closure of many projects might have already been achieved and the implementation might not lead to fresh sanctions.

There is an overall economic recovery, thanks to improving operating profits and favourable equity market conditions this year. Almost every infrastructure sector is witnessing investments driven largely due to government support.

Both Crisil and the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) have nearly doubled their capital expenditure (capex) estimates for the next fiscal year to a whopping Rs 6,60,000 crore and Rs 7,00,000 crore, respectively.

“Every capacity addition activity leads to job creation, it cannot be a jobless growth. I cannot put a number on how many jobs would be created from the projected Rs 7,00,000 crore capex spending during 2010-11, but for every industrial job created, the multiplier effect in form of other jobs like contracts, etc, is 1:4,” says Ajit Ranade, chief economist of Aditya Birla group.

Some of these investments include

NTPC – 16,400 crore investment to expand coal based electricity production by 4100 MW
Mahindra & Mahindra – 2500 crores at Chakan near Pune to make 3 lakh vehicles annually
Tata Motors – 1500 crores at Sanand in Gujarat to make the Nano car
Renault Nissan – $990 million (approx 4500 crores) in Chennai to make 4 lakh cars annually
Maruti Suzuki – 2500 crores investment in Rohtak, Haryana
JSW Energy – 4200 crores
GVK Power – 3200 crores
Tata realty – 1370 for highways
IRB – 1824 crores for highways
Jindal – 47,000 crores for coal to liquid fuel plant & thermal power plant in Orissa
Tata -  21,000 crores project in Kalinganagar, Orissa

“There would be huge money coming as foreign direct investment in the next fiscal while the external commercial borrowing norms are expected to be relaxed further. Besides, India’s savings rate is 34-35 per cent of GDP, which translates into huge savings at the projected Rs 70,00,000 crore GDP for fiscal 2010-11. Hence I think, despite having high borrowing plans from the India Inc, capex spending by private and public sectors could be easily absorbed,” says Ranade of Aditya Birla.

Read the full articles here and here

Above picture courtesy: Abhijitkar

+++

Was it expected?  Well, it depends on the people you are asking.  If you ask the rulers of the kingdom, then everything is and was hunky dory.  If you ask the economists and people tracking the business of Dubai, it was always sitting on a debt bubble, ever willing to burst.

The tallest building, the biggest man made island, the biggest snow world in the midst of a desert, the largest mall in the world, the glitziest and grandest hotels in the world…the list of biggest, largest, tallest was never enough for Dubai to conquer.  And in this context, the tiny city state of Dubai over leveraged itself and built an empire of debt.  A debt that is bigger than its GDP now.

For a country that hardly has any oil, it had to build its future on something else than oil.  So, the charismatic ruler of Dubai, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum decided to move to finance, tourism to hedge its economy.  Good vision no doubt, but its the execution where the fault lay.  Mindless borrowing was fun and fine till the economic collapse happened in the USA.  With the collapse of Lehman, Merrill Lynch and a host of big banks, the easy money dried up.  And it was just a matter of time before which this was to happen.

Just three days before Eid, the Dubai government’s announced a six-month reprieve on debt repayments. This  sent shockwaves through the world markets, as it raised doubts over the Gulf emirate’s ability to meet its financial obligations.

Dubai is being crushed under a mountain of debt. The emirate has a debt in excess of $80 billion which it incurred by expanding in banking, real estate and transportation. Dubai World with $60 billion liabilities has sought a six-month standstill on its debt repayment to all its lenders.

The Dubai government requested the creditors of Dubai World (one of three conglomerates that are backed by the emirate), to agree to a ‘standstill’ on repayments until May 30 2010.

On one hand the Finance ministers and bankers are saying that the markets are behaving erratically.  But believe them at their own peril.  These are the same people who just days before the collapse of the American banks proclaimed that all was well.

For most of this decade Dubai has been the Victoria Beckham of the Arab world–the biggest, glitziest, most heedless spender. It’s been the sort of place that invests $7.6 billion subway system few of its 1.6 million people are likely to use, the sort of place that builds artificial islands in the shape of palm trees, the sort of place that builds the world’s tallest skyscraper, the sort of place that sells designer seat-belts to encourage drivers to be safer in the very cars it wants them to trade in for a subway ride, and the sort of place where office buildings have been the Gulf’s most copious crop of the decade.

Dubai hasn’t limited its excesses to its corner of the United Arab Emirates. Through Dubai World, the Emirate’s investment arm, it partnered with MGM Mirage and invested in such projects as Las Vegas’ City Center, a 67-acre development that includes a 4,004-room hotel-casino, 2,400 high-rise residential condos, dining and entertainment venues and its own retail district. At $8.5 billion, it’s the most expensive privately financed construction project in the United States.

Now the bad news.

The Dubai subway has been running since September, albeit to empty quarters. A quarter of Dubai’s office space is vacant. Workers have taken salary cuts of up to 30%. The Emirati government is in debt to the tune of $80 billion to $120 billion. CityCenter? It’s “worth about half of what it cost MGM Mirage and Dubai World to build the massive Strip development,” the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported in October. lost half its value. MGM Mirage took a $1 billion write-down already, Dubai World ate a $348 million loss (so far).

Read rest of the article here

So, does that mean that the Dubai dream is all over?  Not really.  Am sure the more conservative cousin of Dubai, Abu Dhabi will come in with its oil money to rescue it.  But Abu Dhabi has conveyed that the help will on a case to case basis.

That would mean that we would see lesser flamboyance from everyone associated with Dubai, at least for some time now.

More articles on the Dubai mayhem

Recession and debt dissolve Dubai’s mirage in the desert
Dubai’s Debt Troubles: Beginning of the Next Leg Down?
Dubai: an emirate in crisis
Sober ruler of Dubai whose vision is crumbling in the face of the storm

I have always wanted to have a new page for my investments and its tracking.  So, this was long pending wish, fulfilled.  I have added another page to the site called “Investments“.

Have tried to put up a pictorial representation of the logos of all companies invested.  Have a few things in mind which i want to work on.  As of now, its all fuzzy.  As things clear up, you will see more information on companies, investments, economy, movement of stocks and stuff on that page.

Since my biggest hobby Movies , already has its own dedicated page, it was time my second biggest interest, Investments also had its own page.

More as time goes by.

+++