A load of crap from an idle brain

What a recovery it has been for the markets.  Just a year ago, the Sensex crashed to 8160 points.  Now its trading above 17000 points.  More than 100% growth in just a year.  No other sector (gold, PPF, debt, realty) would give you that kind of growth.  When the markets were down last year and i was talking about the opportunity to buy into some good companies, many of my friends dissuaded me from doing that.

“Buy when everyone sells and sell when everyone buys” is probably the only way to make money in the market.  Following the heard mentality is sure to give a lot of heart pain in the long run.

The exhilarating bounce from the lows that the Indian equity market touched on 9 March 2009 is now a year old—and what a year it has been. These 12 months have been a wildly profitable time for those brave souls who held their nerve and bought stocks, while it has been a missed opportunity for those who thought it was a short-lived bear market rally and thus preferred to sit on cash.

The benchmark Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index, or Sensex, closed on Tuesday at 17,052.54, up 109% over a year ago, though just about nobody believes the next 12 months will be as good.

Read the full article here

Above picture courtesy: Livemint

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Bill Bonner of the Daily Reckoning has for long had a bone to pick with Thomas Friedman of the New York Times. It all first started with legendary short seller James Chanos calling China “Dubai times 1,000 – or worse.” To which Thomas Friedman wrote that James Chanos should be careful about trying to “short a country that has $2 trillion in cash” in this article titled “Is China the next Enron?”

Thomas Friedman & Bill Bonner

In his article, The Long and Short of China, Bonner goes hammer and tongs at Thomas Friedman saying…

Oh happy days are here again. Obama is going to get our money back from the banks. Jeffrey Sachs is telling Haiti how it can get its economy back in order (with other people’s money, naturally). And Thomas Friedman is offering investment advice.

This should be fun. We’re all on the bus…and it’s driven by the blind, the deaf and the very dumb. Oh, sorry, we meant the visually impaired…the hearing impaired…and the mentally deficient.

Friedman is, as we all know, full of advice on just about everything. He advises finance ministers on how to soup-up their economies. He advises the Arab world on how to update its religious institutions. He advises whole nations on how to improve the future before it happens.

And here he is now counseling Mr. James Chanos, noted short seller, on how to make money

Big egos are at play here.  But its not to discount the value of the words being spoken here.  Bill Bonner, Thomas Friedman and James Chanos are all good at what they do.  They have built up a career full of backing their claims with the work they have done.

Last word on whether China is a bubble or not is yet to be spoken.  Meanwhile, Thomas Friedman finds another supporter in Keith Fitz-Gerald of Money Morning.

Above pictures courtesy: Theteemingbrain, Cityfile & Stockopedia

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Was it expected?  Well, it depends on the people you are asking.  If you ask the rulers of the kingdom, then everything is and was hunky dory.  If you ask the economists and people tracking the business of Dubai, it was always sitting on a debt bubble, ever willing to burst.

The tallest building, the biggest man made island, the biggest snow world in the midst of a desert, the largest mall in the world, the glitziest and grandest hotels in the world…the list of biggest, largest, tallest was never enough for Dubai to conquer.  And in this context, the tiny city state of Dubai over leveraged itself and built an empire of debt.  A debt that is bigger than its GDP now.

For a country that hardly has any oil, it had to build its future on something else than oil.  So, the charismatic ruler of Dubai, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum decided to move to finance, tourism to hedge its economy.  Good vision no doubt, but its the execution where the fault lay.  Mindless borrowing was fun and fine till the economic collapse happened in the USA.  With the collapse of Lehman, Merrill Lynch and a host of big banks, the easy money dried up.  And it was just a matter of time before which this was to happen.

Just three days before Eid, the Dubai government’s announced a six-month reprieve on debt repayments. This  sent shockwaves through the world markets, as it raised doubts over the Gulf emirate’s ability to meet its financial obligations.

Dubai is being crushed under a mountain of debt. The emirate has a debt in excess of $80 billion which it incurred by expanding in banking, real estate and transportation. Dubai World with $60 billion liabilities has sought a six-month standstill on its debt repayment to all its lenders.

The Dubai government requested the creditors of Dubai World (one of three conglomerates that are backed by the emirate), to agree to a ’standstill’ on repayments until May 30 2010.

On one hand the Finance ministers and bankers are saying that the markets are behaving erratically.  But believe them at their own peril.  These are the same people who just days before the collapse of the American banks proclaimed that all was well.

For most of this decade Dubai has been the Victoria Beckham of the Arab world–the biggest, glitziest, most heedless spender. It’s been the sort of place that invests $7.6 billion subway system few of its 1.6 million people are likely to use, the sort of place that builds artificial islands in the shape of palm trees, the sort of place that builds the world’s tallest skyscraper, the sort of place that sells designer seat-belts to encourage drivers to be safer in the very cars it wants them to trade in for a subway ride, and the sort of place where office buildings have been the Gulf’s most copious crop of the decade.

Dubai hasn’t limited its excesses to its corner of the United Arab Emirates. Through Dubai World, the Emirate’s investment arm, it partnered with MGM Mirage and invested in such projects as Las Vegas’ City Center, a 67-acre development that includes a 4,004-room hotel-casino, 2,400 high-rise residential condos, dining and entertainment venues and its own retail district. At $8.5 billion, it’s the most expensive privately financed construction project in the United States.

Now the bad news.

The Dubai subway has been running since September, albeit to empty quarters. A quarter of Dubai’s office space is vacant. Workers have taken salary cuts of up to 30%. The Emirati government is in debt to the tune of $80 billion to $120 billion. CityCenter? It’s “worth about half of what it cost MGM Mirage and Dubai World to build the massive Strip development,” the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported in October. lost half its value. MGM Mirage took a $1 billion write-down already, Dubai World ate a $348 million loss (so far).

Read rest of the article here

So, does that mean that the Dubai dream is all over?  Not really.  Am sure the more conservative cousin of Dubai, Abu Dhabi will come in with its oil money to rescue it.  But Abu Dhabi has conveyed that the help will on a case to case basis.

That would mean that we would see lesser flamboyance from everyone associated with Dubai, at least for some time now.

More articles on the Dubai mayhem

Recession and debt dissolve Dubai’s mirage in the desert
Dubai’s Debt Troubles: Beginning of the Next Leg Down?
Dubai: an emirate in crisis
Sober ruler of Dubai whose vision is crumbling in the face of the storm

The International Monetary Fund said on Monday it sold 200 tonnes of gold to the Reserve Bank of India for $6.8 billion, quietly executing half of a long-planned bullion sale that had threatened to slow gold’s rally.

While the IMF’s plan to sell some of its gold holdings had been flagged for a year before it was formally approved in September, the speed of the deal and the buyer were a surprise for traders, who had expected China — not India — to be the leading contender as Beijing diversifies its vast reserves.

The sale, which an IMF official said was concluded at an average price of about $1,045 an ounce over a two-week period in the latter half of October, will relieve the market of some of uncertainty over how and when the fund would execute its plan to sell 403.3 tonnes of gold, about one-eighth of its total stock.

“This transaction is an important step toward achieving the objectives of the IMF’s limited gold sales program, which are to help put the fund’s finances on a sound long-term footing and enable us to step up much-needed concessional lending to the poorest countries,” the IMF’s managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, said in a statement.

While the threat of IMF and central bank sales did not stop gold prices from soaring to a record high $1,070.40 last month, aided by a falling U.S. dollar, traders said the IMF news could add to the market’s upward momentum.

Full article here

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Our fake ‘Iron Man’ and the eternal Prime Minister in waiting, LK Advani has fallen for a simple internet hoax.  Ya, the same kind of hoax mails that propagate that 30% of all Indians populate NASA, that 25% of all Microsoft employees are Indians etc..

Read Manish’s post as he busts the hoax that is popularly going round on the internet mentioning that almost US$ 5.7 trillion of Indian cash is being hoarded in Swiss banks and that he will bring them back to India.

Self-appointed Prime Minister Lal Krishna Advani apparently is too excited about the Internet.  He suddenly is receiving chain mails like all of us – and has decided the government policy should be decided based on these email forwards.

Mr.Advani now wants all black money stashed away in Swiss banks by Indians brought back. And he promises to do that if he comes to power. Well,  how a man who couldn’t negotiate a few hijackers – will arm-twist Swiss bankers is beyond me.

Read the rest of the post here.

We have such morons staking claims for the next PM’s gaddi.  I have always believed that leaving the Prime Minister’s reigns in the hands of a communal Advani (the one responsible for all the communal blood letting in India with his rath yatras) is foolhardy.  And now, with these comments, the belief that he is not only communal, but also a nutcase is only confirmed.

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