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Ignore the negativity, celebrate the miracle that we survived 64 years

Picture courtesy: Santabanta

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Took a week off from work to rest, relax and recharge my batteries.  We are already into the 8th month of the year and i had yet to take a single leave this year.  Not to mention haven’t fallen sick for more than 18 odd months and (touch wood), would like that to remain that way for a long long time to come.  It means that i hadn’t been taking any break from work.

Work has been too tough and nerve wracking ever since i moved into the new department more than 5 months ago (ya, time flies), not to mention colleagues who are of no use to the team but somehow manage to survive at work inspite of doing nothing productive. Ya, life is a big bunch of surprises.  The ones who work are questioned when there is a lapse on their end, but some people just laze around at work and unashamedly take the salary at the end of the month and no one even bats an eyelid.

Anyways, over a period of time have steeled myself to ignore such characters and sideline them.  There are others who are enthusiastic about work and they are the ones who really encourage me to look forward to going back to work daily.

But this week off was a much needed one.  Have been doing nothing but having good home cooked food, having my regular post lunch naps, wandering aimlessly around the city, reading books on the couch and most importantly watching the financial markets melt the world over.  Watching this self inflicted wound by the US not only to itself but criminally exporting its problems to the worldwide economies is simply mind boggling to watch.  Not to mention morons like Alan Greenspan openly bragging that this debt ceiling is of no issue to the US as they can print as much dollars they want.  Now beat that.

The funniest part of the whole debt problem is the reaction from China which blasted the US for its uninhibited funding of its consumerism by debt.  But why is China so worried about the debt downgrade of the US from AAA to AA+ by S&P ?  Its because China holds more than a trillion dollars worth of US debt.  The more irony comes from the fact that just a few months ago, some so-called Chinese thinkers were threatening to dump dollars that China is holding in the form of its foreign reserves to show who the boss is.  Which makes one wonder, if China dumps the dollar, which moron in the world wants to buy it?  And if it dumps the dollar and the value of the dollar takes a nosedive further eroding the value of the reserves its holding, who is China threatening in the first place?  Its like cutting the nose to spite the face.  The whole fracas reminds me of the saying that i had posted sometime earlier in this blog….

“If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.” – J Paul Getty

China today finds itself between the devil and the deep sea.  On one hand it needs to keep the yuan weaker by buying up all the dollars else the export oriented economy that China has carefully built up over the decades will collapse.  With thousands of riots happening countrywide, the Communist government doesn’t want another disaster on its hands.

And its not easy to make a complete turnaround of the economy from an exporting one to a local consumer led economy.  The transition takes years to happen. So, it keeps buying up dollars to keep its own currency cheaper and with the US dollar collapsing to newer lows, everyone is at their wits end trying to hold things together.

So, what to do now?  Nothing much..if you have money sit tight or start buying into blue chips in small tranches.  For the ones who sold off their equity holdings a few months earlier, i have nothing but admiration for your foresight.  For those who plan to sell during the collapse now, there is nothing more foolish decision than that.

Gold is scaling new heights daily as the US dollar loses its value.  Its gonna be a turbulent few months ahead.  Sit tight, there is much more trouble ahead.  Like the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett once said…

“Its only when the tide goes out that you learn who has been swimming naked”

Pictures courtesy: Now Public, Guardian, wmpoweruser

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Somewhere in 2003, fed up of perennially running out of cash at the end of every month and just before the salary for the next month was to come in, i realised i had to do something drastic. Also the thought of not wanting to work till 55 or 60 years old (like everyone else) was always in the back of my mind.

I decided to not only save a small part of my salary but also start investing. Real estate was out of question as it required a bigger monetary commitment and i was loathe investing in land that could some day be encroached and i would need to run around the authorities and people in power to get them evicted.

The next best option was the stock market.  It didn’t require a huge upfront money and also because of Systematic Investment Plan (SIP), i could invest a small amount every month in the mutual funds.  Also because of demat, it was easy for me to buy small number of shares of the companies that i liked.  Since my knowledge of economics, finance and the stock market in general was a big zero, i had to educate myself.  I attended a few seminars, but at the end realised that they were nothing but big money making scams.

This is when i truly realized the power of the internet.  With some great help from Google uncle, i jumped headlong into an intense 12 month study of the stock markets. I searched for information like crazy on equities and mutual funds. By then i had more or less realised that i was going to concentrate primarily in the Indian stock markets.  A developing economy which
was consistently clocking above 7% growth every year and a huge market, i realised that if i could get in early, i could probably ride a 20-30 year long boom.

India was then just starting off.  The BSE Sensex was then around 4500 (it has since climbed to 21,000, then fell to 9000 odd and is now back to 19000). I remember reading an Indian business magazine that pointed to a target 8000 for BSE Sensex in a few months time.  I chuckled to myself at the audacity of that heading.  But still deep down in my heart somewhere I had the belief that we were looking at something spectacular that was about to happen.

Imagine a country of a billion people and with the economy clocking 7-8% annual growth in GDP, it was sure to hit a trillion dollars soon and if the rate of growth could be kept up, then the next trillion could come in 8-9 years.  Yes, there were and are lots of things that could derail the growth. Terrorism emanating from Pakistan being just one such issue. Poverty, rampant corruption (that has become a norm these days), a closed economy, religious and regional violence…many issues could be an impediment to India’s growth and thus hit my investments in the market.

But honestly, when you realise that you are in the pits, the only way to go is up.  I took the risk and opened a demat account.  Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) was getting listed on the Indian stock markets for the first time ever in 2004.  I applied for the IPO and was allotted a measly 7 shares at 850 rupees each.  I was disappointed at not having been allotted more. Nervethless,  i held on.  A few months later the stock hit 1400 rupees.  I sold off at almost 550 rupees profit per share.  I made more than 3800 rupees (not accounting for taxes) in a few months by investing in TCS.

I had tasted blood.

Target 2015 continues….

Above target picture courtesy: David Hawkins

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The IPL finals was hopelessly one sided.  With no orange or pink cap holders, Chennai proved that one doesnt need superstars in the team to win the cup twice in a row.  And Bangalore proved that its appearance in the final was courtesy a one man show called Chris Gayle.  Till Gayle came in the middle of the tournament, Bangalore was floundering.  He single-handedly powered the team to the finals.  To expect him to repeat the performance again in the finals was asking for a bit too much.  No wonder they flopped when Gayle was out in the first over itself.

The captain cool, Dhoni marshaled his troops well (as usual).  No fuss, no emotions guy, Dhoni has demonstrated repeatedly that he is the best cricket captain ever to wear the Indian cap.  A T20 world cup win, a 50 over world cup win, 2 IPL wins and a Champions league T20 win, taking India to the top ranking test team, he has achieved probably everything that he needs to.  And when asked, he simply retorted that he wouldn’t mind repeating the whole thing again.  That’s the kind of hunger that drives champions.

On the other hand, Barcelona showed why they are the best footballing club in the world.  Money can only buy you this much.  The most important thing is for the group to gel well and play as a team.  If at all money could buy success, the musical chairs of managers being played at Chelsea and Real Madrid would have won them tons of trophies.  Or for that matter if star players could power teams to victory, then Sachin Tendulkar would have been a great captain.  These are great examples for teams who have no qualms splashing out millions of bucks to snap up superstars for their teams.

Manchester United might be the best in England, but two consecutive losses to Barcelona in the past 3 years shows that they still have a mountain to climb when it comes to the Champions League.  And if Manchester United cant make it, then it just shows the hollowness of the other teams in the English Premier League (Chelsea, Liverpool & Arsenal included).

And now i shudder to think that i have no sports to look forward to for the next couple of months, with both IPL, Champs League and all the European leagues coming to and end for the season.

The only thing to look forward in the next month is if the second sting Indian team traveling to the West Indies can pull off a miracle.  And to see how the new coach of India, Duncan Fletcher manages the egos in the team.

Above pictures courtesy: Cricinfo & Sun

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The chickens have finally come home to roost.  After decades of national policy of fomenting terrorism in the neighborhood, the snake fed and protected by successive Pakistani governments, Army and their masters, the rogue intelligence agency, ISI have finally started to bite them.

The terrorists born and bred under the patronage of the Pakistani military which was pursued as a strategic interest has now attacked the PNS Mehran naval base and destroyed 2 P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft (bought from the US as strategic interest against India).  Ironical how one strategic interest is conflicting with the other.

After being kicked in the butt by the US who unilaterally took action to kill Bin Laden in Abbotabad, now Pakistan has run to its other “all-weather” friend China.  What is funny is how Pakistan has no qualms prostrating itself in front of anyone who can give it alms.  There is no shame or determination to take the country on the path of economic development or spine demonstrated by successive governments.

The begging is what takes the cake.  After leeching off almost $15 billion from a naive American government post 9/11 in the guise of “war on terror”, they have run to their other friend, China who has over the decades not even given $500 million in aid.   In an effort to pitch one superpower against the other, Pakistan is now trying to threaten US that if it doesnt stop the attacks on its soil, it will run into the willing arms of its rival, China.

Pakistan is like the country who keeps a gun to its own head and threatens everyone else.  Its high time the US government calls its bluff and cuts off all aid.  Then see how long Pakistan can sustain itself.  You will soon see the Pakistanis grovelling on all fours and coming back apologising.

One is confused if one should sympathise with the thousands of innocents being killed in Pakistan by suicide bombers and other terrorist acts.  The Indian government’s constant harping that a peaceful and stable Pakistan is in our own interest is nothing but hogwash.  A stable and peaceful Pakistan is nothing but a bigger headache for India than one that is broken up into a few pieces and let all the pieces either live in peace of fight amongst themselves.

The earlier the Indian government realises the folly of engaging the Pakistani government or its masters (their Army & ISI), the better it is for them.  I rather the Indian government put their energies in building better relations with Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar & Sri Lanka.

For starters, how about throwing open our economy to the above mentioned 5 countries for free trade.  Its time we stopped behaving like a big brother in the neighborhood and display our large heartedness to these countries who are more worthy of our time, money and friendship.

Above pictures courtesy: NDTV

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