A load of crap from an idle brain

What a recovery it has been for the markets.  Just a year ago, the Sensex crashed to 8160 points.  Now its trading above 17000 points.  More than 100% growth in just a year.  No other sector (gold, PPF, debt, realty) would give you that kind of growth.  When the markets were down last year and i was talking about the opportunity to buy into some good companies, many of my friends dissuaded me from doing that.

“Buy when everyone sells and sell when everyone buys” is probably the only way to make money in the market.  Following the heard mentality is sure to give a lot of heart pain in the long run.

The exhilarating bounce from the lows that the Indian equity market touched on 9 March 2009 is now a year old—and what a year it has been. These 12 months have been a wildly profitable time for those brave souls who held their nerve and bought stocks, while it has been a missed opportunity for those who thought it was a short-lived bear market rally and thus preferred to sit on cash.

The benchmark Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index, or Sensex, closed on Tuesday at 17,052.54, up 109% over a year ago, though just about nobody believes the next 12 months will be as good.

Read the full article here

Above picture courtesy: Livemint

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Bill Bonner of the Daily Reckoning has for long had a bone to pick with Thomas Friedman of the New York Times. It all first started with legendary short seller James Chanos calling China “Dubai times 1,000 – or worse.” To which Thomas Friedman wrote that James Chanos should be careful about trying to “short a country that has $2 trillion in cash” in this article titled “Is China the next Enron?”

Thomas Friedman & Bill Bonner

In his article, The Long and Short of China, Bonner goes hammer and tongs at Thomas Friedman saying…

Oh happy days are here again. Obama is going to get our money back from the banks. Jeffrey Sachs is telling Haiti how it can get its economy back in order (with other people’s money, naturally). And Thomas Friedman is offering investment advice.

This should be fun. We’re all on the bus…and it’s driven by the blind, the deaf and the very dumb. Oh, sorry, we meant the visually impaired…the hearing impaired…and the mentally deficient.

Friedman is, as we all know, full of advice on just about everything. He advises finance ministers on how to soup-up their economies. He advises the Arab world on how to update its religious institutions. He advises whole nations on how to improve the future before it happens.

And here he is now counseling Mr. James Chanos, noted short seller, on how to make money

Big egos are at play here.  But its not to discount the value of the words being spoken here.  Bill Bonner, Thomas Friedman and James Chanos are all good at what they do.  They have built up a career full of backing their claims with the work they have done.

Last word on whether China is a bubble or not is yet to be spoken.  Meanwhile, Thomas Friedman finds another supporter in Keith Fitz-Gerald of Money Morning.

Above pictures courtesy: Theteemingbrain, Cityfile & Stockopedia

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For a country that has always looked at Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) with suspiction and has resisted the entry of foreign money, the $100 billion mark that India has hit is not a mean achievement.

India has crossed the $100 billion milestone in FDI through equity since 2000 up to July this year testifying the country’s increasing profile as a safe and sound investment destination in the midst of the global financial crisis.

As much as 44% of the money came through the Mauritius route, apparently because the investors wanted to take advantage of India’s double taxation avoidance treaty with the island nation. The cumulative FDI inflows since 2000 and up to July 2009 amounted to $100.33 billion. The inflows in the first four months of the current financial year was $10.5 billion, according to data compiled by the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion. The other big investors included Singapore, the US, UK and the Netherlands.

Commenting on the $100 billion milestone, economists said India is being perceived as a safe and dynamic destination for global investors. “This is a reflection that India is being taken as a safe and dynamic destination for investment as the economy is growing at 6%. The investors also want to diversify their portfolio from China by investing here,” Rajiv Kumar, CEO and director of Icrier said. The FDI would further improve if the economic recovery continues.

“We did not receive much FDI initially…since 2008 we have started receiving good numbers…there are signs of economic recovery in a few countries and I think inflows will improve with the economic recovery,” Crisil principal economist D K Joshi said.

Ficci secretary general Amit Mitra said FDI not only brings money but also new technology and managerial capabilities. “FDI’s main impact comes from new technology, new managerial capabilities, new benchmarks in corporate functioning,” Mitra said.

Above news source: TimesofIndia

Picture source: The Hindu

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40 years after he took over his family’s vegetable oil company and turned it into a $5 billion company selling IT services, computers, consumer care, lighting and medical equipments, Azim Premji is on the lookout for his next billions.  He sees them coming from renewable sources of energy.  Water and Eco-energy are the two areas of focus for Wipro and that is where they believe the next billions will come for the company.

For those who know Premji, it is not uncommon to see the fifth richest Indian on the Forbes List and the 63-year-old chairman of Wipro switching off the lights before leaving office. It is this commitment to avoid waste that has turned Premji’s attention to ecology and sustainability.

In October 2008, even as it warned of slowing growth in its main software outsourcing business in the backdrop of a global financial crisis, Wipro released a recruitment ad for two new businesses, Wipro Water and Wipro EcoEnergy. The company has spent the previous two years preparing for this diversification, which may turn out to be the company’s third big change. The first was when a 21-year-old Premji took charge at Wipro after his father’s sudden death; the next was when the vanaspati and soap maker transformed itself into a multi-billion dollar information technology giant in the 80s and 90s.

Chief Financial Officer Suresh Senapathy says green services and solutions will bring in up to one out of every four dollars of the company’s revenue, three years from now. In the financial year ending March 2009, Wipro had revenue of more than Rs. 25,000 crore. Even if the revenue were to stagnate, a fourth of it — Rs. 6,250 crore — from ecology is no small amount. The plan also aligns well with Premji’s desire to ease down IT’s profit contribution from 93 percent currently to 70 percent in the next few years.

The new idea was first thought up by the 41-year-old head of Wipro Infrastructure Engineering (WIN), Anurag Behar. The two new ecology businesses will be housed under WIN. In January 2007, Behar made the first formal presentation about the ecology business to Wipro’s board of directors. The board reacted positively but also advised caution: Ecology was a nascent field with rapidly evolving technology and Wipro should not get locked in a technology that ran the risk of becoming obsolete soon.

Wipro has turned its 50-acre campus at Electronic City in Bangalore into a test bed. While 25,000 software engineers write code for Fortune 500 corporations, waste food from the cafeteria turns into methane for lighting burners, harvested rainwater is used to cool air-conditioning towers, a paper pulping plant recycles waste paper into writing pads and a micro windmill lights bulbs along the perimeter of the campus. Wipro’s Sarjapur campus a few kilometres away has India’s largest LED installations — all compact fluorescent lamps have been replaced with LED lights, helping save 75 percent in electricity consumption. Since 2003, Wipro has cut water usage in its offices across India by nearly two-thirds.

Read the full article here

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It might be too early to make such a declaration, but a lot of pointers indicate that such an unthinkable thing has already started.  Has the Great American Dream that the Indian families so fondly cherished started to grind to a halt? Or is it just a temporary pause?

Remember those days when the H1-B visa quota was reduced from 150,000 to 65,000 and the furore it created during the Bush regime.  Even Bill Gates slammed the US govt for such a myopic decision of not wanting to get in as many people from developing countries such as India into the USA.

A few years ago, when the H1-B visa window opened, it was filled up within a matter of few hours.  This year, the window has been open for 7 weeks already and still 20,000 vacancies still exist.  What happened?

Owing to sluggish US economy, the H-1B visa programme, once the most sought after among Indian professionals, still has nearly 20,000 slots vacant, seven weeks after the American authorities started receiving applications for the fiscal 2010 beginning October this year.

The US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) yesterday said it has so far received approximately 45,500 H-1B petitions against the Congressionally-mandated cap of 65,000.

This is in contrast to the previous years when USCIS had to resort to computerised draw of lots as it used to receive petitions outnumbering the cap several times within the first few days of opening the scheme.

The USCIS said it has received about 20,000 petitions for the advanced degrees category. However, it would continue to accept advanced degree petitions since experience has shown that not all applications received are approvable, the USCIS said in a statement.

For the fiscal 2010, the USCIS started receiving H-1B petitions from April 1. In the first five working days, it received 42,000 H-1B petitions. In the month and half since then, USCIS has received juts 3,500 more H-1B petitions, indicating the slump in demand for H-1B work visas.

This is mainly attributed to the current economic crisis, high unemployment rate in the US and also partly to anti-H-1B sentiment prevailing in America at present.

Source

Agree that Obama has stopped giving tax breaks to companies that ship jobs outside the US, but then why the reluctance of the Indians to go to the US now?

A recent survey showed that almost 86% of Indian students in the US believe that better days lie ahead for India.  A lot of them favour a return back to India inspite of the salary cut they might have to take.  I know a few friends who have left it all and moved back.  I read the blog of one such person who writes about his experiences in India post his move back from the US.

Have we reached the end of the brain-drain that was so endemic in the 80s and 90s?  Only time will tell.

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