A load of crap from an idle brain

Its been a year since i moved this blog to my own domain.  Didnt realise till the other day when i was searching something about my domain and found that it was to expire in a few days.  That’s when i remembered about a mail i got from Justhost explaining that since i have hosted my blog with them, they will continue to renew my domain name for free.

The past year of hosting has been really wonderful and the guys at Justhost have been a great help. Havent had any downtime of this website.  Touchwood.  On the 24th of this month, i would have completed 6 years of blogging.  When i started, i never realised that i would last so long.  Moving to my own domain has taught me a lot of things about hosting and stuff.  Hope to blog till there are news which will prompt me to comment. And i hope such news never stops.

Meanwhile will start writing more about finance and investing as these are the interests that i plan to pursue further. I started investing in the Indian stock markets in 2005 for fun.  TCS was coming out with its maiden IPO and i applied for it.  That was my first ever investment in equity.  I had been investing in mutual funds before that through Systematic Investment Plan (SIP).  I was allotted 7 shares of TCS for around Rs 850 each.  I sold them off a few months later around Rs 1250. I tasted blood and havent looked back ever since

After reading Equitymaster for a few years, I signed up for their service and till now they have given me superb advice on stocks to pick up.  I have seen few people complaining about the advise provided by Equitymaster, but for me their advice has mostly been positive.  On an average, 8 out of 10 of their recommendations have worked for me.  And i would advise anyone to subscribe to them.  Its surely not cheap, but they have lots of small options that you can subscribe for.  Their reports are comprehensive and constantly updated.

Sometime in future, i plan to write the NCFM exams of the National Stock Exhchange and also get certified as a Certified Financial Planner (CFP).  Those are my long term plans.

+++

In Singapore, everyone aspires for the 5Cs – Car, condo, Cash, Credit Card & Club membership.  As countries like India grow economically, its natural for more and more people to have similar aspirations.  But what we are seeing as per this article in Bloomberg is the decline in credit card business in India.

Its normal to see people carrying 4-5 credit cards in their wallets in Singapore.  I remember having read some survey long ago that a Singaporean woman carries more credit cards than men.  So much is the spending power of a Singaporean woman that one of the biggest bank in Singapore, UOB issues a credit card exclusively for women. They even have a punchline “The men dont get it“.

The reason cited by this article is the tightening of the unsecured loan portfolios.  Where does it leave the gen Y now? Will this lack of disposable income affect the growth of the Indian economy?  Afterall, the Indian government is banking on this new generation to push the GDP growth to more than 10% annually. Or is cash the new king?

The number of credit cards being used in India has fallen by around one-third or 35% over the last two years. The sharp drop is being attributed to banks’ move to cut unsecured loan portfolios and defaults.

You might have  noticed that those annoying phone calls from banks pushing credit cards have stopped. If you haven’t, you may be surprised to know that one crore credit cards have gone out of circulation over the past two years. There were 2.83 cr credit cards in April 2008. It’s down to 1.83 cr in March 2010.

Banks aggressively selling credit cards have became cautious after suffering defaults. While officials didn’t disclose the extent of their losses, the numbers are clearly quite high.

Another article in Moneylife on the same issue mentions that the credit cards have become unprofitable after having suffered huge losses.

Ever wondered why there are fewer calls from telemarketers offering you a platinum, lifetime free credit card? It has nothing to do with the Do Not Disturb (DND) facility from telecom operators. Credit cards have become unprofitable, especially after various banks suffered huge delinquencies in 2005-07, the boom years. Since the bankers or card issuers are not earning much money on credit cards, you now have to really struggle to get one.

A few years ago or before the 2008 recession, people used to receive a lot of marketing calls for credit cards, free for life from any annual fee. Now the trend seems to have reversed. With the slowdown, many people defaulted on their credit card payments. Usually, during a slowdown, the number of defaults goes up rapidly. However, people don’t default on their home or car loans, since there is a danger of the creditor taking possession of the collateral. However, the same is not true for a credit card. Even if the user defaults on his credit card payment, the recovery takes much more time.

Above picture courtesy: Deems

+++

The Indian economy roared past estimates to post a whopping growth rate of 8.6% in the January-March quarter of 2010. The quarter’s strong showing also helped India end the fiscal year with 7.4% growth, beating the earlier estimate of 7.2%. Manufacturing led the way, with a whopping 16.3% growth in the quarter and 10.8% overall, while even agriculture, which was expected to decline, ended with marginal growth of 0.2% year-on-year after growing 0.7% in Q4.

The GDP growth rate had slowed to 6.7% in 2008-09 following the global economic crisis, after topping 9% in the previous three years. On Monday, finance minister Pranab Mukherjee reiterated his confidence that the economy would grow at 8.5%-plus in 2010-11.

Finance secretary Ashok Chawla also pegged economic growth at 8.5% in 2010-11. “The growth numbers are pleasant but not really surprising, because we were expecting them to be robust which they turned out to be. This clearly indicates the momentum which is in the economy and the expectations that the 8.5% estimation for 2010-11 is going to be a clear possibility,” he said.

Full article here

Above picture courtesy: Moneymint

+++

The largest private bank, ICICI is set to become even bigger.  Though the price they are paying to buy out Bank of Rajasthan seems a bit too much.

Bank of Rajasthan, one of the oldest private sector banks in the country, on Tuesday announced that it would merge with the largest private sector bank, ICICI Bank.

The board of ICICI Bank, which met later in the day, also agreed to give in-principle approval for merger of Bank of Rajasthan with it “subject to due diligence and valuation by an independent valuer jointly appointed by both banks.”

“The board will consider the due diligence report and the valuation report at a subsequent meeting. The proposal if approved by the boards of ICICI Bank and Bank of Rajasthan would then be placed before the shareholders of both banks for approval and would be submitted to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for its consideration,” ICICI Bank stated after its board meeting here.

Full article here

+++

After years of talking to many industrial and retail houses, the French retail giant, Carrefour has agreed for a retail alliance with Kishore Biyani’s Future Group.

Future Group will open Carrefour-branded franchise stores in the country under a deal signed three months ago, said the two persons, who spoke on condition of anonymity because an announcement is yet to be made.

Future Group plans to open between 150 and 300 Carrefour-branded hypermarkets in the next five years, said one of the two persons.

“This is quite ambitious given the challenges in finding right space required for such hypermarkets,” said the person.

Future Group, which runs Pantaloon and the Big Bazaar chains, will pay the French retailer a royalty for using the brand, said the person, who declined to specify the royalty amount.

Indian rules allow foreign multi-brand retailers to operate in the country only through franchise agreements with local firms.

Carrefour has been scouting for a partner for several years, without success. It has previously held talks with Bharti Enterprises Ltd, which teamed up with Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Wadia Group, and real estate firms DLF Ltd and MGF Ltd, among others.

In 2007, Carrefour started two separate units in India, Carrefour WC and C India Pvt. Ltd to roll out fully owned wholesale stores, and Carrefour India Master Franchise Co. Pvt. Ltd, which was to partner an Indian company to open the French firm’s branded stores in the country.

Full article here

+++

After a spectacular 100% rise from 2008 levels, the markets moved into a bubble territory.  The Greece debt downgrading to junk status might be the needle that would prick the bubble.

For an ordinary man on the street, its a disaster.  For the newscasters, its breaking news.  For a long term investor, its a good time to buy some great stocks at fabulous prices.

A leading credit agency lowered Greece’s rating to junk status, dealing a blow to an international rescue plan for the country and hammering U.S. and European stock markets.

The junk rating, unusual for a developed nation, deepened fears that big fiscal deficits and debt burdens elsewhere could threaten the economic recovery in Europe. Stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic tumbled about 2 percent or more after the downgrade by Standard & Poor’s.

The downgrade fanned investors’ doubts that the proposed economic reforms in Greece will go far enough to prevent the country from spiraling into even deeper trouble. It also presented a new obstacle to the planned $60 billion bailout from European governments and the International Monetary Fund.

Full news here

As i write, the BSE Sensex is more than 250 points down from yesterday’s close.  Portugal also has been downgraded. With Ireland, Italy, Spain also in the line, there seems to be long dark days ahead.

Hope the Sensex collapses some more over the next few weeks to settle around 15-16k. So that i can do some bargain hunting

Above picture source: Tribune

+++

I first saw this book in a bookshop in India. Didnt buy it then as i found the price a bit too high for my pocket.  Also i hadnt read any reviews of the book and i didnt want to spend so much money on a book that i didnt know much about.

Recently i managed to lay my hands on the book and it turned out to be a breezy read.  Mohnish Pabrai of Pabrai Funds who is the author of this book writes about the Dhandho way of doing business.  To do this he quotes examples of the Patels own the majority  of motels in the US, about Richard Branson’s way of doing business and also Laxmi Mittal who owns the Arcelor-Mittal group of steel companies.

According to Pabrai before buying into a company or before buying the stocks of a company, the investor needs to do the following checks

1. Is it a business I understand very well—squarely within my circle of competence?
2 . Do I know the intrinsic value of the business today and, with a high degree of confidence, how it is likely to change over the next few years?
3 . Is the business priced at a large discount to its intrinsic value today and in two to three years? Over 50 percent?
4 . Would I be willing to invest a large part of my net worth into this business?
5 . Is the downside minimal?
6 . Does the business have a moat?
7 . Is it run by able and honest managers?

The mantra always is “few bets, big bets, infrequent bets”—all placed when the odds are overwhelmingly in your favor.

The Dhandho Investor – The Low Risk Value Method to High Returns
Author – Mohnish Pabrai
Pages – 209
Publisher – John Wiley & Sons

+++

What a recovery it has been for the markets.  Just a year ago, the Sensex crashed to 8160 points.  Now its trading above 17000 points.  More than 100% growth in just a year.  No other sector (gold, PPF, debt, realty) would give you that kind of growth.  When the markets were down last year and i was talking about the opportunity to buy into some good companies, many of my friends dissuaded me from doing that.

“Buy when everyone sells and sell when everyone buys” is probably the only way to make money in the market.  Following the heard mentality is sure to give a lot of heart pain in the long run.

The exhilarating bounce from the lows that the Indian equity market touched on 9 March 2009 is now a year old—and what a year it has been. These 12 months have been a wildly profitable time for those brave souls who held their nerve and bought stocks, while it has been a missed opportunity for those who thought it was a short-lived bear market rally and thus preferred to sit on cash.

The benchmark Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index, or Sensex, closed on Tuesday at 17,052.54, up 109% over a year ago, though just about nobody believes the next 12 months will be as good.

Read the full article here

Above picture courtesy: Livemint

+++