A load of crap from an idle brain

3 big states (West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu) and one politically strategic state (Delhi) is now ruled by women.  Not to mention the President of India, Pratibha Patil, the leader of the ruling party, Sonia Gandhi, leader of the opposition, Sushma Swaraj.   India is today the perfect poster child for women’s empowerment.

Most of the above mentioned women (except Sonia Gandhi) have made it on their own.  Of course they had their own mentors on the way up.  But they made it on their sheer dint of hard work and perseverance.

Am not sure if there is any big country in the world where women are in power in such a big capacity.  So, its 3 cheers to the populace who voted all these women to power.  Hopefully unlike the men who screwed up the country royally, the women would do a better job.

Hope Jayalalitha would keep her vindictive streak in the backburner and let law takes its course on the various scams perpetrated under the DMK reign.   Hope Mamta Banerjee will realise that she is the leader of the ruling party now and ditch her habit of going on a strike / hartal every time her ego has been hurt.  Am sure the Commies wouldnt have taken the kick in the butt given to them by the people of the state of Bengal in the right spirit and try to rake up problems for the new government.  Afterall, the Commies are synonymous with inefficiency, violence, ineptitude and failure.

Here’s 3 cheers to the women power and hoping that Behenji will finally wake up from the slumber and stop building more statues and do something for the chronically backward state of  Uttar Pradesh.  Hope Shiela Dikshit will keep up the good work of transforming the infrastructure of Delhi from a sleepy bureaucratic city to a modern mega-metropolis.

Headline taken from: Ibnlive

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Finished reading this book almost a month ago, but due to paucity of time almost forgot to write about this book.

This book is a look into the next 100 years by George Friedman (no relation to Thomas Friedman of the New York Times).  George Friedman is the chief executive of STRATFOR, a private global intelligence firm he founded in 1996. He has spent more than 20 years teaching political science and has commented extensively on security and defense issues.

Though its difficult to accurately predict what can happen next year, Friedman lets his thoughts into the next 100 years based on the situations and issues that have shaped the past 100-200 years.  Based on this he comes to the conclusion that in the next 100 years, the major powers of the world would be (hold your breath) USA, Japan, Poland and Turkey.

He goes on to describe that by the end of the current decade (2020), China would have disintegrated and Tibet liberated with active participation by India and China will either go back to its closed doors policy or become a non-entity.  Yes, China has to keep up its blistering growth or else there could be serious trouble among its population which has no other outlet to express its disenchantment against the communist government.  But to think that the communist government hasnt thought about it and doesnt have a plan B is difficult to imagine.

The author asserts that the United States power is so extraordinarily overwhelming that it will dominate the coming century, brushing aside Islamic terrorist threats now, overcoming a resurgent Russia in the 2010s and 20s and eventually gaining influence over space-based missile systems that Friedman names battle stars. Friedman is the founder of Stratfor, an independent geopolitical forecasting company, and his authoritative-sounding predictions are based on such factors as natural resources and population cycles. While these concrete measures lend his short-term forecasts credence, the later years of Friedmans 100-year cycle will provoke some serious eyebrow raising. The armed border clashes between Mexico and the United States in the 2080s seem relatively plausible, but the space war pitting Japan and Turkey against the United States and allies, prognosticated to begin precisely on Thanksgiving Day 2050, reads as fantastic (and terrifying) science fiction. Whether all of the visions in Friedmans crystal ball actually materialize, they certainly make for engrossing entertainment.

source: Amazon

There are a lot of issues on which i dont agree with the author of the book.  Other than a few instances, Friedman makes no mention of India in the whole book.  He says that India would be a regional power with no impact on the global affairs.  I cant understand how he manages to just discard a country that could have 1.5 billion people by 2050, the world’s top 5 standing army, one of the best airforce and naval power, not to mention an economy of at least $ 20 trillion by 2050 (conservative estimates).

I tried making a small comparison chart of the countries that are supposed to be significant players (according to Friedman) in the next 100 years versus India.  A cursory glance at the figures and its easy to see why the book is way off on its prediction.

* Data belongs to year 2009
** All figures are in US dollars
*** GDP & per capita is PPP
**** Data sourced from CIA website

But he goes on and on about Turkey and Poland being significant leaders in Europe who will militarily crush the rest of Europe.  There is hardly any mention of France or Britain.  Germany according to Friedman would be on the decline.  Agreed on that, but to dismiss the German power with regards to Turkey and Poland is simply too far fetched.

He also speaks a lot about Mexico which could be the top 10 economies by 2050, but no mention of India which could be the top 3 economy by 2050.  The author looks too enamoured by USA and believes that they will maintain status quo into the next 100 odd years.  Of course, no one believes that US will just lie down and die, but to imagine that the disastrous economic policies pursued by USA would have no impact into the future is a bit too far fetched to believe.  As for Japan, its negative population growth combined with its insignificant economic growth for the past 20 odd years have dented its abilities both on the economic as well as military front.  As a country that doesnt encourage any form of immigration, Japan will be in deep trouble as it has to cope with a rapidly graying population.  If it opens its doors to immigration, its will have to face a lot of social tensions.

The book is a good read, if you are into fantasies and would love to have a good laugh.  Surely not a book to be taken seriously.

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
Author – George Friedman
Pages – 272
Publisher – Doubleday

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Good to see a thumping victory of the JD-BJP combine in Bihar.  After keeping Bihar in the dark ages, Lalu Prasad believed that the people of Bihar wouldnt want to see the development anymore.

A win for Congress-RJD would have been a trip back to the stone age for Bihar. Nitish Kumar has got an overwhelming mandate from the public.  No matter how much the Congress tries to portray that the win for Nitish was nothing but a rejection of Lalu’s politics, they cant deny the fact that people have virtually rejected them too.  For the party ruling at the center to win /lead in less than 10 seats in a 243 member assembly is a new low.

People are increasingly voting for roti-kapada-makaan and other necessities in life.  No one bothers about reservations, mandir-masjid, communal and other caste politics anymore.  There is a whole new generation of kids who have been born post the 1991 liberalisation.

The new India demands development.  Hope the Thuggerays in Bombay realise that probably they need to stop beating up the migrants from Bihar.  Sooner or later no one would want to end up in the corrupt and crumbling Slumbay Bombay anymore.  Hope the corrupt Congress in Maharashtra gets the message too.   Not to mention the constant feuding AP Congress.

3 Cheers again to Nitish Kumar for his developmental politics. May his tribe increase.

PS: Guess what is the other heartening news?  The complete rout of the commies

Above picture courtesy: IBNLive

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We can choose our friends, but not our neighbours.  This statement was famously made by our previous Prime Minister, AB Vajpayee. How true.  Given a chance we would like to pack Pakistan and dump them into the sea for being such a pest.  Why not?  Afterall, a country which has terrorism as its national policy against its neighbours, a country that drills hatred into its citizens brains 24×7, a country that doesnt mind soiling the plate that hold its food, Pakistan is nothing but a big pain in the butt for the world community now.

After the leak of more than 90,000 secret documents on the Wikileaks website, more and more sordid exposure of the Pakistani leadership are coming to light.  It was always known that the rogue intelligence agency of Pakistan, the ISI, was hand in glove with Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Lashkar-e-Toiba and many other terrorist organisations fomenting teror in India.

But what takes the cake is the ignorant America feeding the Paki army so that it can fund the terrorists which in turn stab the American and other NATO troops currently in Afghanistan in the back.  The same money that the Americans provided the Pakistani government is now being fed by the ISI and Pakistani Army back to the Al Qaeda backed terrorists who are in turn killing the American soldiers.

I wonder how the American citizens are tolerating their government feeding the same scums who are killing their soldiers. Any civilized government would have re-looked at the horrors of the backstabbing that Pakistan has been doing to their soldiers…but not the US government.  The game of strategic reach that the US likes to play so much has stretched its resources so badly that the US economy is on the verge of a collapse.  Still, it refuses to learn from its mistakes.

Inspite of the evidence put forth by the intelligence, that the biggest snake in the hole is nothing but the Pakistani Army/ISI, the Americans seem to have no qualms sharing the same bed with them.  Pakistan has mastered the art of holding a gun to its own head and threatening to kill itself.  Its time the Americans call their bluff.

If the Americans want to withdraw from Afghanistan in 3-4 years as they predict, its best for them to rein in the Pakistani Army/ISI and strengthen the Afghan govt’s hands in developing a strong defence against not only the local insurgents but also the Army/ISI.

As for India, the best thing for it to happen would be the breakup of Pakistan.  I have always believed that a strong and economically stable Pakistan is a bigger headache for India than one which is broken up into pieces.  I love Manmohan Singh and really appreciate the hard work he is putting in trying to find a peaceful solution with Pakistan.  But he doesnt realise that he is barking up the wrong tree and that Pakistan is like the dog whose tail will always be curled.  No matter what we cant straighten it.  Its not a civilized society and probably we need to wall off the borders between the two countries and cut all strategic, business and people to people ties.

According to Canada’s former ambassador to Afghanistan, Chris Alexander…

Gen. Kayani is saying he wants to call the shots in Kabul. To do so, he is prepared to support the principal outfit launching suicide attacks in Afghanistan’s cities. He is backing the Islamic Emirate’s effort to wreck an Afghan-led nation-building process.

The Pakistan army under Gen. Kayani is sponsoring a large-scale, covert guerrilla war through Afghan proxies – whose strongholds in Baluchistan and Waziristan are flourishing. Their mission in Afghanistan is to keep Pashtun nationalism down, India out and Mr. Karzai weak.

It has nothing to do with Islam, whose principles they trample; indeed, the flower of Afghanistan’s ulema (religious leaders) have been among their victims. Gen. Kayani and others will deny complicity. But as the WikiLeaks material demonstrates, their heavy-handed involvement is now obvious at all levels.

To understand the context of this fraught relationship, read a report called The Sun and the Sky: The Relationship of Pakistan’s ISI to Afghan Insurgents, by Matt Waldman, a former Oxfam policy adviser now at Harvard. It is a chilling tale. When the scale of this complicity is fully exposed, it will rank high on the list of modern scandals.

The USA seems to have no qualms cutting off all funding to Iran, North Korea and any other country that doesnt toe its line.  But when it comes to Pakistan, it strangely behaves like an Ostrich who buries its face in the sand.

Tunku Varadarajan hits the nail on the head when he says…

We are now at a crossroads with Pakistan, a point at which we need to pull out old words from the Bush playbook. It is time to state to them—to state, in particular, to Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kiyani, the Pakistan army’s chief of staff—that Pakistan is either with us, or against us. There can be no caveats, no exit clauses, no fine print, no weasely handwringing about Pakistan’s need to retain “strategic balance” in Afghanistan.

Some more articles on the leaked documents

On WikiLeaks, Pakistan and Afghanistan; the tip of an old iceberg

Above pictures courtesy: Pakistanisforpeace & omjiyadav

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Iam a strong believer in the theory that the government has no business doing any business.  The government has no business running steel companies, textile mills, condom companies etc.  All that the government has to do is to manage the law and order machinery, keep the country safe and to create laws and an environment that is conductive for its people do do business and prosper.  The government exists so that the common man can use his skills to run his own business and employ people.  More than 60 years ago when the country got its independence, it was ok for the government to get into all the industries so as to kick start the process of industrialisation.  As time went by, the citizens of the country got into the business of making money and it was time for the government to sell off the businesses and do what it was mandated to….and that is to govern the country.

But under the socialist regime of our succesive governments, the economy has been screwed up badly and sadly even 63 years after independence, we have millions of our citizens going hungry every day while millions of tons of foodgrains rot in open grounds for lack of storage space.

Meanwhile we have a food and agricultural minister who is busy hobnobbing with the glamour of industry and entertainment and involving himself in cricket. Not to mention monopolising the sugar business in his home state of Maharashtra. All this at time when foodgrains have no place to be stored and are left to the mercy of rains and heat in some open lands.

Even though the Supreme Court has woken up late, its good to see that the apex court has now come out with a ruling stating that not a single grain should be wasted and if the government cant do the needful, it must distribute the food to the poor free of cost.

The Supreme Court has observed that not a single food grain should be wasted. In a strongly-worded ruling, the apex court has told the government that foodgrains are rotting and if you can’t do anything about it then distribute it among the poor. The court has also sought government’s response on this.

Meanwhile, as the government faces flak over letting close to 30 lakh tonnes of foodgrain rot across the country, the Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) on food has reportedly decided to sell an additional 30 lakh tonnes of rice and wheat to 11.5 crore Above-Poverty-Line (APL) families through ration shops.

Didnt such a though occur to the incompetent government and the food minister earlier?

PS: Remember the days of waiting for 2 years for a land line, booking periods for a Bajaj scooter or a Maruti car?  That’s the kind of pathetic performance only our government can do.  That’s why agriculture, retail and everything to do with logistics needs to be deregulated.  So that the private sector can do in a few years what our government hasn’t been able to do in decades.

Picture courtesy: Poonam

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