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Finished reading this book almost a month ago, but due to paucity of time almost forgot to write about this book.

This book is a look into the next 100 years by George Friedman (no relation to Thomas Friedman of the New York Times).  George Friedman is the chief executive of STRATFOR, a private global intelligence firm he founded in 1996. He has spent more than 20 years teaching political science and has commented extensively on security and defense issues.

Though its difficult to accurately predict what can happen next year, Friedman lets his thoughts into the next 100 years based on the situations and issues that have shaped the past 100-200 years.  Based on this he comes to the conclusion that in the next 100 years, the major powers of the world would be (hold your breath) USA, Japan, Poland and Turkey.

He goes on to describe that by the end of the current decade (2020), China would have disintegrated and Tibet liberated with active participation by India and China will either go back to its closed doors policy or become a non-entity.  Yes, China has to keep up its blistering growth or else there could be serious trouble among its population which has no other outlet to express its disenchantment against the communist government.  But to think that the communist government hasnt thought about it and doesnt have a plan B is difficult to imagine.

The author asserts that the United States power is so extraordinarily overwhelming that it will dominate the coming century, brushing aside Islamic terrorist threats now, overcoming a resurgent Russia in the 2010s and 20s and eventually gaining influence over space-based missile systems that Friedman names battle stars. Friedman is the founder of Stratfor, an independent geopolitical forecasting company, and his authoritative-sounding predictions are based on such factors as natural resources and population cycles. While these concrete measures lend his short-term forecasts credence, the later years of Friedmans 100-year cycle will provoke some serious eyebrow raising. The armed border clashes between Mexico and the United States in the 2080s seem relatively plausible, but the space war pitting Japan and Turkey against the United States and allies, prognosticated to begin precisely on Thanksgiving Day 2050, reads as fantastic (and terrifying) science fiction. Whether all of the visions in Friedmans crystal ball actually materialize, they certainly make for engrossing entertainment.

source: Amazon

There are a lot of issues on which i dont agree with the author of the book.  Other than a few instances, Friedman makes no mention of India in the whole book.  He says that India would be a regional power with no impact on the global affairs.  I cant understand how he manages to just discard a country that could have 1.5 billion people by 2050, the world’s top 5 standing army, one of the best airforce and naval power, not to mention an economy of at least $ 20 trillion by 2050 (conservative estimates).

I tried making a small comparison chart of the countries that are supposed to be significant players (according to Friedman) in the next 100 years versus India.  A cursory glance at the figures and its easy to see why the book is way off on its prediction.

* Data belongs to year 2009
** All figures are in US dollars
*** GDP & per capita is PPP
**** Data sourced from CIA website

But he goes on and on about Turkey and Poland being significant leaders in Europe who will militarily crush the rest of Europe.  There is hardly any mention of France or Britain.  Germany according to Friedman would be on the decline.  Agreed on that, but to dismiss the German power with regards to Turkey and Poland is simply too far fetched.

He also speaks a lot about Mexico which could be the top 10 economies by 2050, but no mention of India which could be the top 3 economy by 2050.  The author looks too enamoured by USA and believes that they will maintain status quo into the next 100 odd years.  Of course, no one believes that US will just lie down and die, but to imagine that the disastrous economic policies pursued by USA would have no impact into the future is a bit too far fetched to believe.  As for Japan, its negative population growth combined with its insignificant economic growth for the past 20 odd years have dented its abilities both on the economic as well as military front.  As a country that doesnt encourage any form of immigration, Japan will be in deep trouble as it has to cope with a rapidly graying population.  If it opens its doors to immigration, its will have to face a lot of social tensions.

The book is a good read, if you are into fantasies and would love to have a good laugh.  Surely not a book to be taken seriously.

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
Author – George Friedman
Pages – 272
Publisher – Doubleday

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For years China has been pursuing its policy of a string of pearls; which meant having naval stations around the Indian subcontinent as a means of encircling India.  The building of a port in the Sri Lankan town of Hambantota, Gwadar in Pakistan, courting the island states of Seychelles, Maldives, Mauritius and not to mention Myanmar.

Unwittingly of course, India had been resorting to its own plan of undoing this pearls by its Look East policy that it put in place a couple of decades ago.  Over these years, India has strengthend not only economic, but also military partnership with some key nations of South East & East Asia like Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand & Singapore.

Its no secret that China is one of the biggest trading partner of ASEAN as well as of Japan & South Korea.  But its also a fact that most of these countries are not comfortable with the flooding their domestic markets with Chinese goods.  Also China’s yuan manipulation keeps the prices of their goods cheaper and affects the local economies of countries like Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia etc.  And many of these countries are already protesting the same.

The increasing economic clout of China has also massaged its military ego and it now has a lot of territorial claims against countries like Japan, Vietnam and other South East Asian countries.

It is in this context that one can see how India’s Look East policy is reaping rich dividends.  Not only has it led to economic benefits, but also robust military exchanges between the countries and India.

In all these hoopla, what is not being missed is the increasing defence collaboration between the militaries of America and India.  During the cold war era, India was fully dependent on the Russians for arms supply.  with the collapse of the USSR, the spares dreid up and defence procurement dipped to a low for India. During the Kargil war, it was the Israelis who came to India’s aid with timely supplies of spares and the required ammunition.

Today Israel and the US are increasingly becoming the biggest arms suppliers to India. Over the last couple of years, India has purchased six C-130J Super Hercules aircraft for almost US$1 billion and eight Boeing P-8I planes for more than US$2 billion (2009) from the US.

Also US is in running to bag the massive $12 billion 126 advanced figher for which the testing is already underway.

Though it would do a world of good for India to have a coherent defence policy instead of buying piecemeal arms and ammunitions.  Not to mention try to have an indegenous arms production industry within the country.  Depending on the DRDO and its allied organisations is a suicidal step for the country.  Privatisation of the defence industry would go a long step in indigenisation of defence technology.   The Mahindras, L&T, Tatas are increasing their participation in defence technology and it would do a lot of good in future.

Some good reads on this topic

How India is undoing China’s string of pearls
Delhi’s obsequious Obamamania
India counters China’s “String of Pearls” through Naval Diplomacy

Above pictures courtesy: Tactical Life & Twenty22

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Indian armed forces have chalked out a stunning round of combat exercises with foreign forces over the coming several months to use “defence diplomacy” as a tool to bolster national security as well as promote strategic cooperation.

Defence ministry officials say the 1.13-million Army alone has planned 14 to 18 exercises with countries ranging from the US, UK and Russia to Bangladesh, Mongolia, Thailand and Tajiskistan, both at home and abroad.

For instance, the armies of Seychelles and Singapore will be in Belgaum and Deolali in January for joint combat exercises . Similar is the case with Navy and IAF. Indian warships will hold combat manoeuvres with French warships, including nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, during the “Varuna” wargames on the high seas in January . “Indian and French navies and air forces have build a high-level of interoperability through such exercises… We have a strategic partnership ,” said visiting French chief of defence staff Admiral Edouard Guillaud.

The US, of course, is leading the charge in this “interoperability” game, with Indian and American armed forces holding a staggering 60 or so wargames over the last decade.

Many more are in the offing. After the ‘Malabar’ naval wargames on the western coast, the “Habu Nag” amphibious exercise at Okinawa (Japan) and the “Vajra Prahar” counterterrorism drills at Belgaum earlier in the year, around 200 Indian soldiers are now leaving for Alaska to take part in the “Balance Iroquois” exercise with American special forces.

Despite defence minister A K Antony always being eager to downplay the expansive Indo-US defence relationship, the armed forces of the two nations have set a scorching pace in their bilateral engagement . Of the 64 exercises conducted by the Army between 2001 and 2009, well over one-third were with the US.

“The US is the only superpower around… We learn a lot from exercising with them. With the vast counter-insurgency experience of our professional forces, we also teach them a lot,” said a senior officer.

Above news source: TimesofIndia

Pictures courtesy: Military photos, Getty

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At a time of overhyped & corrupt cricketers and our so called Gods of cricket who refuse to stand up for the game and hide behind the fig leaf of “I have never seen any match fixing happen in all my life”, its refreshing to see a gold medal in the world wrestling championship.

3 cheers for Sushil Kumar and here’s wishing him the best for the forthcoming Commonwealth Games to be held in Delhi in October.

Sushil became the first Indian wrestler to win gold at a senior world championship after outclassing Alan Gogaev of Russia 3-1 in straight rounds in the final of the 66 kg freestyle category at the Olympiskiy Sports Centre in Moscow.

The dominating fashion in which Sushil, bronze medalist at the 2008 Beijing Olympics, won the title clash is proof of the Najafgarh wrestler’s dominance in the category.

Sushil, known for his power-game, went on the offensive at the start of the first two-minute round in the final bout. The 27-year-old used his leg take-down moves to unsettle the technically sound Russian and scored two quick points to control the proceedings there after. And though Gogaev took a point back, Sushil closed the opening round 2-1 with some solid defence.

Gogaev went on the offensive in the start of the second period, but the experienced Sushil controlled his younger rival and scored a point with another take down to surprise the home crowd as the Indian contingent went berserk. The Russians were surprised perhaps with the loss on home turf but the Indian team officials expected nothing but gold from their champion.

Read the full article here

Above picture courtesy: Samrao

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Prime Minister Vladimir Putin closed more than $10 billion in agreements with India, increasing Russia’s role as a partner in defense, nuclear energy, aerospace and communications.

“Putin has been the architect of the strategic partnership between India and Russia,” Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said after meeting with his Russian counterpart in New Delhi today. “Relations with Russia are a key pillar of our foreign policy.”

Putin, in five visits over the past decade, has spearheaded Russia’s effort to revive Cold War-era ties to India and fend off growing competition for defense and energy contracts from the U.S. and Europe. The Kremlin is playing on Indian ambitions to become a global power capable of rivaling China and sending manned missions to outer space.

Russian companies signed more than a dozen deals, including agreements to deliver India’s second aircraft carrier in 2012, build as many as 16 nuclear reactors and sell 29 MiG-29 fighter jets. India also became the first country to win access to military use of Russia’s Glonass navigation network, a rival to the U.S. Global Positioning System. Putin promised to help send India’s first cosmonaut into space in three years and held open the possibility of joint moon exploration.

Full article here

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