This book is a look into the next 100 years by George Friedman (no relation to Thomas Friedman of the New York Times).  George Friedman is the chief executive of STRATFOR, a private global intelligence firm he founded in 1996. He has spent more than 20 years teaching political science and has commented extensively on security and defense issues.

Though its difficult to accurately predict what can happen next year, Friedman lets his thoughts into the next 100 years based on the situations and issues that have shaped the past 100-200 years.  Based on this he comes to the conclusion that in the next 100 years, the major powers of the world would be (hold your breath) USA, Japan, Poland and Turkey.

He goes on to describe that by the end of the current decade (2020), China would have disintegrated and Tibet liberated with active participation by India and China will either go back to its closed doors policy or become a non-entity.  Yes, China has to keep up its blistering growth or else there could be serious trouble among its population which has no other outlet to express its disenchantment against the communist government.  But to think that the communist government hasnt thought about it and doesnt have a plan B is difficult to imagine.

The author asserts that the United States power is so extraordinarily overwhelming that it will dominate the coming century, brushing aside Islamic terrorist threats now, overcoming a resurgent Russia in the 2010s and 20s and eventually gaining influence over space-based missile systems that Friedman names battle stars. Friedman is the founder of Stratfor, an independent geopolitical forecasting company, and his authoritative-sounding predictions are based on such factors as natural resources and population cycles. While these concrete measures lend his short-term forecasts credence, the later years of Friedmans 100-year cycle will provoke some serious eyebrow raising. The armed border clashes between Mexico and the United States in the 2080s seem relatively plausible, but the space war pitting Japan and Turkey against the United States and allies, prognosticated to begin precisely on Thanksgiving Day 2050, reads as fantastic (and terrifying) science fiction. Whether all of the visions in Friedmans crystal ball actually materialize, they certainly make for engrossing entertainment.

source: Amazon

There are a lot of issues on which i dont agree with the author of the book.  Other than a few instances, Friedman makes no mention of India in the whole book.  He says that India would be a regional power with no impact on the global affairs.  I cant understand how he manages to just discard a country that could have 1.5 billion people by 2050, the world’s top 5 standing army, one of the best airforce and naval power, not to mention an economy of at least $ 20 trillion by 2050 (conservative estimates).

I tried making a small comparison chart of the countries that are supposed to be significant players (according to Friedman) in the next 100 years versus India.  A cursory glance at the figures and its easy to see why the book is way off on its prediction.

* Data belongs to year 2009
** All figures are in US dollars
*** GDP & per capita is PPP
**** Data sourced from CIA website

But he goes on and on about Turkey and Poland being significant leaders in Europe who will militarily crush the rest of Europe.  There is hardly any mention of France or Britain.  Germany according to Friedman would be on the decline.  Agreed on that, but to dismiss the German power with regards to Turkey and Poland is simply too far fetched.

He also speaks a lot about Mexico which could be the top 10 economies by 2050, but no mention of India which could be the top 3 economy by 2050.  The author looks too enamoured by USA and believes that they will maintain status quo into the next 100 odd years.  Of course, no one believes that US will just lie down and die, but to imagine that the disastrous economic policies pursued by USA would have no impact into the future is a bit too far fetched to believe.  As for Japan, its negative population growth combined with its insignificant economic growth for the past 20 odd years have dented its abilities both on the economic as well as military front.  As a country that doesnt encourage any form of immigration, Japan will be in deep trouble as it has to cope with a rapidly graying population.  If it opens its doors to immigration, its will have to face a lot of social tensions.

The book is a good read, if you are into fantasies and would love to have a good laugh.  Surely not a book to be taken seriously.

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
Author – George Friedman
Pages – 272
Publisher – Doubleday

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Unwittingly of course, India had been resorting to its own plan of undoing this pearls by its Look East policy that it put in place a couple of decades ago.  Over these years, India has strengthend not only economic, but also military partnership with some key nations of South East & East Asia like Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand & Singapore.

Its no secret that China is one of the biggest trading partner of ASEAN as well as of Japan & South Korea.  But its also a fact that most of these countries are not comfortable with the flooding their domestic markets with Chinese goods.  Also China’s yuan manipulation keeps the prices of their goods cheaper and affects the local economies of countries like Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia etc.  And many of these countries are already protesting the same.

The increasing economic clout of China has also massaged its military ego and it now has a lot of territorial claims against countries like Japan, Vietnam and other South East Asian countries.

It is in this context that one can see how India’s Look East policy is reaping rich dividends.  Not only has it led to economic benefits, but also robust military exchanges between the countries and India.

In all these hoopla, what is not being missed is the increasing defence collaboration between the militaries of America and India.  During the cold war era, India was fully dependent on the Russians for arms supply.  with the collapse of the USSR, the spares dreid up and defence procurement dipped to a low for India. During the Kargil war, it was the Israelis who came to India’s aid with timely supplies of spares and the required ammunition.

Today Israel and the US are increasingly becoming the biggest arms suppliers to India. Over the last couple of years, India has purchased six C-130J Super Hercules aircraft for almost US$1 billion and eight Boeing P-8I planes for more than US$2 billion (2009) from the US.

Also US is in running to bag the massive $12 billion 126 advanced figher for which the testing is already underway.

Though it would do a world of good for India to have a coherent defence policy instead of buying piecemeal arms and ammunitions.  Not to mention try to have an indegenous arms production industry within the country.  Depending on the DRDO and its allied organisations is a suicidal step for the country.  Privatisation of the defence industry would go a long step in indigenisation of defence technology.   The Mahindras, L&T, Tatas are increasing their participation in defence technology and it would do a lot of good in future.

Some good reads on this topic

How India is undoing China’s string of pearls
Delhi’s obsequious Obamamania
India counters China’s “String of Pearls” through Naval Diplomacy

Above pictures courtesy: Tactical Life & Twenty22

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Defence ministry officials say the 1.13-million Army alone has planned 14 to 18 exercises with countries ranging from the US, UK and Russia to Bangladesh, Mongolia, Thailand and Tajiskistan, both at home and abroad.

For instance, the armies of Seychelles and Singapore will be in Belgaum and Deolali in January for joint combat exercises . Similar is the case with Navy and IAF. Indian warships will hold combat manoeuvres with French warships, including nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, during the “Varuna” wargames on the high seas in January . “Indian and French navies and air forces have build a high-level of interoperability through such exercises… We have a strategic partnership ,” said visiting French chief of defence staff Admiral Edouard Guillaud.

The US, of course, is leading the charge in this “interoperability” game, with Indian and American armed forces holding a staggering 60 or so wargames over the last decade.

Many more are in the offing. After the ‘Malabar’ naval wargames on the western coast, the “Habu Nag” amphibious exercise at Okinawa (Japan) and the “Vajra Prahar” counterterrorism drills at Belgaum earlier in the year, around 200 Indian soldiers are now leaving for Alaska to take part in the “Balance Iroquois” exercise with American special forces.

Despite defence minister A K Antony always being eager to downplay the expansive Indo-US defence relationship, the armed forces of the two nations have set a scorching pace in their bilateral engagement . Of the 64 exercises conducted by the Army between 2001 and 2009, well over one-third were with the US.

“The US is the only superpower around… We learn a lot from exercising with them. With the vast counter-insurgency experience of our professional forces, we also teach them a lot,” said a senior officer.

Above news source: TimesofIndia

Pictures courtesy: Military photos, Getty

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3 cheers for Sushil Kumar and here’s wishing him the best for the forthcoming Commonwealth Games to be held in Delhi in October.

Sushil became the first Indian wrestler to win gold at a senior world championship after outclassing Alan Gogaev of Russia 3-1 in straight rounds in the final of the 66 kg freestyle category at the Olympiskiy Sports Centre in Moscow.

The dominating fashion in which Sushil, bronze medalist at the 2008 Beijing Olympics, won the title clash is proof of the Najafgarh wrestler’s dominance in the category.

Sushil, known for his power-game, went on the offensive at the start of the first two-minute round in the final bout. The 27-year-old used his leg take-down moves to unsettle the technically sound Russian and scored two quick points to control the proceedings there after. And though Gogaev took a point back, Sushil closed the opening round 2-1 with some solid defence.

Gogaev went on the offensive in the start of the second period, but the experienced Sushil controlled his younger rival and scored a point with another take down to surprise the home crowd as the Indian contingent went berserk. The Russians were surprised perhaps with the loss on home turf but the Indian team officials expected nothing but gold from their champion.

Read the full article here

Above picture courtesy: Samrao

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“Putin has been the architect of the strategic partnership between India and Russia,” Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said after meeting with his Russian counterpart in New Delhi today. “Relations with Russia are a key pillar of our foreign policy.”

Putin, in five visits over the past decade, has spearheaded Russia’s effort to revive Cold War-era ties to India and fend off growing competition for defense and energy contracts from the U.S. and Europe. The Kremlin is playing on Indian ambitions to become a global power capable of rivaling China and sending manned missions to outer space.

Russian companies signed more than a dozen deals, including agreements to deliver India’s second aircraft carrier in 2012, build as many as 16 nuclear reactors and sell 29 MiG-29 fighter jets. India also became the first country to win access to military use of Russia’s Glonass navigation network, a rival to the U.S. Global Positioning System. Putin promised to help send India’s first cosmonaut into space in three years and held open the possibility of joint moon exploration.

Full article here

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The triumph gave the Indian his 11th overall and fifth mixed doubles title. With this, Paes has equalled one-time doubles’ partner Mahesh Bhupathi’s tally. The last couple of times they reached a Grand Slam final, Paes and Black ended up on the losing side and eager to make amends for that, they were dominant from the word go.

They broke their rivals as early as in the third game and save for a couple of breaks lost on Black’s serve, the Indo-Zimbabwean pair seemed hardly troubled by Makarova and Levinsky, who committed far too many unforced errors. Black, whose net game and serve were the weak links for the top seeds, raised her game when it mattered after getting some pep talk from Paes.

Full article here

Above picture source: Topnews

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He writes about the way the police along with the MI5, MI6, and various other investigative agencies put the pieces together in the biggest manhunt ever undertaken in the UK to catch the culprits involved in the mayhem.

Andy also goes about his frustration with the inefficient policing and investigative system; the self centered politician who wants his 2 minutes of fame; the ego clashes within the police department which are neatly exploited by the terrorists etc.

Assistant Commissioner Andy Hayman, CBE, QPM, was in overall command of the UK’s national counter-terrorism offensive, at the centre of every major terrorist investigation – overt and covert – of the past five years. He handled the Metropolitan Police’s response to 7/7 and dealt with the politically explosive murder of the Russian dissident Alexander Litvinenko.

Based at New Scotland Yard, in charge of thousands of Special Branch and counter-terrorism officers in the UK and across the globe, deciding strategy, working directly with the Prime Minister with a budget of GBP500 million, Hayman is able to give unprecedented insight into key top-level crisis meetings he attended with intelligence chiefs and political leaders worldwide. In an inspirational and at times heart-breaking account, he describes how he led a dedicated team of men and women, committed to protecting the UK from dangerous enemies. Hayman lived through the pain and soul-searching when terrorists did succeed – and the pride when intelligence officers prevented attacks.

Andy Hayman leaves no holds barred in his analysis of the way law enforcers tackle terrorism. He outlines his radical blueprint for the future to protect the public, in the run-up to the 2012 Olympic Games and beyond. If you thought you knew the stories behind the news, you’ll realise you didn’t until you read this book.

The Terrorist Hunters
Authors – Andy Hayman & Margaret Gilmore
Pages – 352
Publisher – Bantam Press

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Its in these changing times we wonder if a group that consists of countries like Italy, Canada etc wield any power when the world is going throught the worst recession (courtesy the developed countries).  Of course the US, Japan and Germany are also a part of the G-7 group of countries, but do they really have any clout?  The G-7 as usual came out with a statement asking China to re-value it currency and hardly anyone cared a hoot.

After decades in charge, the club of rich, industrialised nations is fast losing sway as a share of global economic power shifts towards big developing countries. That was a lesson of the Group of Seven’s meeting in Istanbul at the weekend, when the absence of China showed the G7 could no longer tackle the world’s economic problems on its own.

Finance ministers and central bank chiefs from the G7 implored China in a diplomatically worded statement to let the Chinese currency rise, as they have done for several years. But China showed no sign of complying, and the G7 spent much of its time to discussing whether it should meet less often, with less pomp and perhaps with fewer public statements.

G7 statements have all too often “interested nobody because there’s no follow-up most of the time”, said Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the head of the International Monetary Fund.

Read the full article here

The G-7 or the group of Industrialized countries comprise

Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States

The G-20 comprises of

Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa,  South Korea, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, European Union

A G-7 official hit the nail on the head when he mentioned

“The moment you have to tell people you are still relevant, it’s because you are not relevant,”

Above picture source: Astrocrush

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More deals with countries would mean that India wouldnt need to depend on a select group of countries for its demand of uranium to power its energy sector.

India on Monday signed a civil nuclear pact with uranium-rich Mongolia that will help it source uranium for its power plants.

According to a joint declaration signed by the two countries, participation of Indian companies through joint ventures and investments in the mining sector in Mongolia is on the cards. “A delegation from India has been invited to Mongolia to discuss the prospects for such a cooperation,” the declaration said.

Mongolia is the sixth country with which India signed the civil nuclear pact after the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers’ Group lifted a 34-year-old ban that had prevented it from trade in the field with the international community. India has earlier signed such agreements with US, France, Russia, Kazakhstan and Namibia.

The agreement — a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in the field of peaceful use of radioactive minerals and nuclear energy — was signed between officials of Department of Atomic energy from both sides in the presence of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Mongolian President Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj at Hyderabad House.

Four other agreements that were signed between the two countries dealt with loan assistance, health and medical science, cultural exchange programme and cooperation statistical matters.

“We have decided to update our bilateral ties to the level of a ‘Comprehensive Partnership’,” Singh said.

India has also agreed to provide Mongolia a soft loan of $ 25 million to help it stabilise its economy in the wake of the financial crisis. In the area of human resource development and capacity building, India will double the number of annual slots for Mongolia under its Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation programme from 60 to 120.

“I have assured the President of our readiness to assist Mongolia in the field of education, particularly in the teaching of English language, and information technology. We will assist Mongolia in the establishment of an Information Technology Centre,” the PM said. While describing the conversations with the Mongolian President as “extremely productive”, the PM said relations with Mongolia are an important pillar of our policy in the Asia-Pacific region.

The declaration also said that development of defence exchanges and cooperation on the basis of the Agreement on Cooperation in Defence Matters signed in 2001 will continue. “The fifth joint military exercise will be held in Mongolia later this month. The third meeting of the Joint Working Group on Defence Cooperation will be held in Ulaanbaatar at a mutually convenient time in 2010,” it said.

Picture source: EFTrends

News source: IndianExpress

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Jayanta Talukdar clinched the men’s individual recurve gold and helped India win the team event in the Archery World Cup Stage 2 at Porec, Croatia, on Saturday.

Talukdar upset Athens Olympicgold medallist Marco Galiazzo of Italy 110-108 in the final to clinch his second gold. Earlier, the trio of Talukdar, Rahul Banerjee and Mangal Singh Champia won India the men’s recurve team gold.

Jayanta Talukdar

This was the trio’s second consecutive team gold after bagging the first at Santo Domingo World Cup Stage 1 on April 5. India had beaten Great Britain in Stage 1 final.The trio had bagged India the first team gold in World Cup series winning at Antalya (Turkey) in 2008. This was followed by two more already this year.

Talukdar also won his third head-to-head contest against the Italian Galiazzo, all played at Porec. He first tamed Galiazzo in 2006 on way to the gold medal, and again beat him in 2008 and now in the final today. Talukdar held the lead in the first two ends of three arrows each at 55-52. He surprisingly conceded two points in the third end to allow the Italian to narrow the gap to 81-82.

Mangal Singh Champia

When Galiazzo hit an eight with his second arrow of the final end of the three arrows, the Indian needed a nine to win. Talukdar hit a 10 to take the second crown in Porec. The women’s recurve team, however, failed to clinch the bronze medal losing the play-off to Ukraine 197-212.

In the men’s team summit clash, Russia trailed by one point (54-55) in the first end, recovered in the second end to tie the match at 108 points at halfway mark. However, India took the lead in the third end at 164-162. Russia showed their best in the last end, but it was not enough to beat the Indians.

Rahul Banerjee

In the women’s third place play-off, it was pretty good performance in dusty conditions as Indian eves took 53-49 lead in the first end. They, however, could not overcome the windy conditions as they did in the first end and went on a wayward shooting, 7-9-8-8-9-6, all on the right side of the target.

The Ukrainians tied the match at 100 points and took the lead in the third end at 154-150. The last end for India was stressful as the last arrow slipped from the arrow rest as Ukraine eves settled the issue. Archery Association of India president VK Malhotra and secretary general Paresh Nath Mukherjee congratulated the winners.

Article courtesy: Rediff and pictures source: Hindu, Tata Steel & NDTV

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